Key messages
- 1) A cold front will move through later today and bring showers and
What Has Changed
PoPs were expanded Friday night into Saturday morning for lake effect precipitation.
Key Messages
thunderstorms to the region, along with much colder air. There is a low potential for isolated strong storms.
2) High pressure returns this weekend and temperatures will gradually warm up next week.
Discussion
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front will continue to lift through the region early this morning with the first round of showers that are expected today. Elevated instability will support isolated heavier showers and potentially some non-severe thunderstorms as well. Despite strong flow aloft, an inversion will limit the mixing potential tonight. However, gusts over 25 mph will still be possible.
This first round of showers will be through by the mid-morning hours, though some spotty showers will still be possible given the close proximity of the associated surface low. A squall line is expected to develop along a cold front that drops in from the northwest by midday and quickly moves through during the afternoon hours. While the region will be in the warm sector prior to the arrival of the front, there is uncertainty on how much instability will develop under a weak October sun angle and limited clearing of skies. Models continue to show SBCAPE value of less than 500 J/kg. Strong mid-level flow will lead to 0-6 km shear rising to 50 to 60 kts - a typical low CAPE, high shear environment for this region. Based on the timing of the front, the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will be across Northeast PA and the Catskills. The main hazard will be strong wind gusts. Low-level shear is also quite high, which supports a low potential for a spin up or two but that will depend on having adequate instability.
Following the cold front, northwesterly flow will advect in much colder air. Temperatures will drop into the 20s and 30s tonight. Lake effect precipitation will develop late today and be enhanced by a passing upper-level trough. Temperatures will generally stay warm enough for just rain though a rain/snow mix or even a brief period of just snow overnight will be possible, especially over the Finger Lakes Region. Little to no snowfall accumulation is expected. High pressure builds into the region Saturday, eventually cutting off the lake effect precipitation by the afternoon. Northwesterly flow may keep the clouds around slightly longer than forecasted, but some late breaks of sunshine are expected. Saturday will be quite chilly with highs only in the 40s. Then overnight, clear skies will lead to radiational cooling and temperatures dropping into the 20s. For the Wyoming Valley, frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The area of high pressure will remain present over the region throughout next week. A quasi-stationary low pressure system will develop along the East Coast. At times, it will drift northward but the high pressure will keep precipitation out of the region. Temperatures will gradually warm up into early next week, becoming more seasonable. Sunny skies may help push high temperatures back into the 70s in the valleys.
Aviation /12Z Friday Through Tuesday/
Gusty south-southwest winds will continue through the morning with some MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings causing restrictions. A strong cold front will bring rain showers and storms to all terminals heading into the late afternoon and early evening. Occasional IFR conditions will passing convective showers and storms are expected. After the cold front passes, MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings are expected to stick around at the majority of terminals.
Outlook...
Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible at ITH and BGM.
Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected with possible IFR valley fog at ELM in the early morning hours.
Bgm Watches/Warnings/Advisories
PA...None. NY...None.
DISCUSSION...BTL AVIATION...KL