Key messages
- First freeze of the season expected over most of the plains tonight.
- Chilly but dry/sunny weather Friday, with another freeze north and east of the Denver metro area Friday night.
- Mainly dry and warmer for the weekend through the middle of next week.
- Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing chance of showers and mountain snow.
Discussion /Through Thursday/
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Recent obs show temperatures starting to drop over parts of the eastern plains, and most of the cloud cover from earlier today has cleared out. A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9am Friday for the eastern plains & I-25 corridor, where lows tonight are expected to drop into the upper 20s-low 30s. Winds should stay light across the area overnight, with some breezier conditions (gusts of about 15- 20mph) in the northeasternmost plains.
Cooler temperatures persist Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s across the plains & I-25 corridor. Downsloping winds should keep lows tomorrow night above freezing for most of the foothills, while the northern and easternmost plains should again see lows in the upper 20s-low 30s. Despite the good model agreement in below freezing temperatures across the plains Friday night, we have decided to hold off for now on issuing any frost or freeze products until we know tonight's low temperatures. Should a killing freeze hit tonight (low temps <= 28F), we would not issue another product; however, if lows don't quite reach that 28 degrees or less threshold, we may be looking at another frost/freeze product.
Temperatures warm back up on Saturday as a ridge moves into the area. Highs are expected to be in the upper 70s on Saturday as the ridge axis moves across the state, with southwest flow dominating on the upstream side of the ridge by Sunday, keeping temps on the warmer side through the first half of next week and pulling in some mid-level moisture. While conditions should stay dry over the plains and urban corridor, we can't rule out a few afternoon rain/snow showers over the higher terrain Sunday through Wednesday.
Currently, both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic solutions bring in our next trough Thursday or Friday. This far out, though, the timing of this system is highly uncertain, as is the location of the cutoff low/trough axis. We'll see how the models trend and see if there's any better agreement from run to run and across models as we get closer to the end of next week.
Aviation /06Z Tafs Through 06Z Saturday/
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026
VFR conditions expected throughout of the TAF period. North to northeasterly winds will hold on for another couple of hours as there is enough mixing due to cold air advection. Between 08-10Z, winds will become light out of the east and then will be light and variable for the rest of the night.
Winds will stay light throughout the day Friday and will have an easterly component from the late morning through the afternoon.
Friday night, drainage will develop and persist throughout the night.
Bou Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ038>051.
DISCUSSION...AGS AVIATION...Danielson