Key Messages
Central and Eastern Interior...
-A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Dalton Highway Summits and Eagle Summits. Gusty winds at about 30 to 40 mph along with snowfall could reduce visibility to 1/2 of a mile at times. *The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 am Thursday to 10 am Saturday.
-Isolated and scattered snow showers are possible throughout the day, leading to some possible accumulations. Gusty winds along with falling snow could result in lower visibility in higher elevations. *Snowfall accumulations are likely to be up to 1 inch south and east of Fairbanks, with up to 3 inches possible in elevated areas north of Fairbanks.
-Cooler conditions are expected this weekend. Highs drop into the low 30s, and lows drop into the upper teens/low 20s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
-Rain/snow showers are expected to continue, with low stratus, and patchy morning fog throughout the week.
-Gusts could reach up to 35 mph for most of the West Coast through Thursday, rapidly weakening Friday evening.
-Temperatures cool through the weekend. Lows fall into the upper teens, with highs in the lower 20s for the Western Interior. Lows fall into the 20s, with highs in the 30s for the West Coast.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
-Snow and gusty winds could create periods of blowing snow, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to the Eastern North Arctic Coast from 4pm Thursday to 4pm Friday. *Wind gusts could reach 40 mph. *Total snowfall accumulations are expected to be up to 1 inch by Friday.
-Light snow is expected to move into the Eastern Brooks Range Thursday night, and then track to the North Slope/Arctic Coast Friday afternoon, and persist through the weekend *1 to 3 inches of snow expected, with higher terrain seeing higher amounts.
-Wind gusts will pick up Thursday, with them peaking at about 35 to 40 mph on Friday, rapidly weakening into Saturday morning. *Visibility may be restricted due to the development of fog.
Synopsis
A messy pattern of multiple low pressure systems will keep Northern Alaska's weather active through the weekend. No major impacts are expected with periods of light snow and breezy winds through the weekend. Some elevated Interior areas and parts of the Arctic Coast may see periods of reduced visibility due to blowing snow through Friday and into Saturday.
Short Term /Through Sunday/
At the start of the forecast period, Thursday, the pattern consists of ridging that has built in from Canada across the Interior and large low pressure systems over the North Pole and near the Alaska Peninsula. These 3 features and their interactions dominate the weather for the next few days. Through Thursday and Friday the low near the Alaska Peninsula moves northeast towards South Central Alaska. As it approaches the area, the ridge is pushed east into Canada and several waves of precipitation are expected to push north over the Interior bringing periods of snow and gusty winds to parts of the Interior late Thursday through Saturday. Given how messy the system becomes as it passes over the Alaska Range, precipitation chances will be possible across the region, but considerable gaps where rain and snow falls are expected. Areas with upslope movement, especially along south facing slopes in the higher terrain of the Interior and Brooks Range are most likely to see notable snowfall amounts.
The low pushes through the Southern Interior and towards Canada through Saturday allowing a weak ridge to fill the void behind it leading to clearer and calmer conditions Sunday. Simultaneously a low rotating around the larger North Pole low moves into the Chukchi Sea from the West. It and the weak ridge press against each other. This will keep the northern low from getting much closer to the Arctic Coast limiting impacts.
Long Term /Sunday Night Through Thursday/
At the start of the extended forecast period, late Sunday, troughing pushes against a ridge over the western portions of the state. Chances of snow continue across the Western North Slope as a low approaches the Chukchi Sea Sunday through Monday. Another large low pressure system approaches the western tip of the Aleutians late Saturday and continues east towards Bristol Bay through Monday. A surface low moving through the pattern is expected to pull this larger system south of the Alaska Peninsula early Tuesday enabling the overall system to strengthen. This next low pressure system is then expected to take a similar track north and east through the Gulf of Alaska and south central towards the Southern Interior Tuesday through Wednesday.
Current models are expecting this low to maintain its organization better than the low from this current week, which may allow for greater snowfall accumulations across the Interior. Accumulations and other potential impacts are still uncertain at this time. We will continue to monitor this storm for any hazardous weather.
Coastal Hazard Potential... The storm systems expected late this week and midweek next week are expected to be too far south to cause any considerable water level rises along the coast from Hooper Bay north.
Afg Watches/Warnings/Advisories
AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ804-805. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ832- 834. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-802-806- 807-814-853-854-856. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ803-804-852. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ805- 852. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ811-850-857. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ812-858. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ813. Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ815. Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ816-851. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ859. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ860. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ860. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ861. Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Friday for PKZ861.
KEY MESSAGES...Donner/Stokes SYNOPSIS.......Stokes SHORT TERM.....Stokes LONG TERM......Stokes COASTAL........Stokes