Key messages
- Widespread rain continues tonight, becoming scattered into Friday morning. Most locations should see an additional 0.25 to 0.5" of rainfall.
- Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph expected. Locally higher gusts to 45 mph will be possible along the lakeshore counties. Gale force gusts are expected across marine zones.
- A Freeze Warning is in effect late tonight into early Saturday morning for much of central, east-central and portions of northeast Wisconsin.
- A Frost Advisory has been posted for late tonight into early Saturday morning for Door County. Areas of frost are anticipated over interior and southern sections of the county.
Update
Issued at 121 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Per coordination with surrounding offices, upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for portions of central, east-central and portions of northeast WI. Winds are expected to drop off late tonight across the Door peninsula, thus have added a Frost Advisory where areas of frost will be possible over interior and southern sections of the county.
Discussion
Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Rain chances through Friday... Radar and surface obs show widespread stratiform rain ongoing late this evening as cold front infringes on northwest Wisconsin and phased upper trough approaches the Great Lakes. Expect rain to become more scattered in coverage overnight into Friday morning with the loss of moisture advection and upper jet support, though most locations should still pick up an addition 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF. Probabilities for receiving 0.5" of rain through tonight sit at around 30 to 60%, highest over far northeast Wisconsin where modest mid-level FGEN resides in proximity to the surface low. Rain then tapers off from west to east late Friday morning, though wrap around moisture may keep showers or drizzle around over east-central Wisconsin through the afternoon.
Winds... Gradient winds ramp up Friday morning as a surge of CAA accompanies northwesterly wind shift and building high pressure over the Plains. Deep daytime mixing will tap into 40 to 45 knot winds at 850 mb Friday afternoon, resulting in a high confidence (60 to 90%) setup for widespread surface gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Only caveat will be Door County, where locally higher gusts will be bumping up against advisory criteria. HREF currently shows a 20 to 40% chance for gusts exceeding 44 mph over northern Door, with sustained winds also coming within a mph or two of criteria. Current thinking would be to hold off on an advisory for the time being due to low confidence, though CAM trends will have to be monitored on subsequent shifts.
Temperatures... Intrusion of arctic high paired with stout northwesterly flow will result in a brief spell of well below normal temperatures Friday and Friday night. Highs will struggle to meet 50 degrees for many locations, with lows then plummeting into the mid 20s to low 30s. Setup still looking favorable (50 to 70%) for a hard freeze Friday night, so have retained the Freeze Watch. A rapid pattern shift to more seasonable temperatures then occurs over the weekend as return flow sets up and upper flow de- amplifies. As such, highs are progged to read mainly in the mid to upper 60s through at least mid-week, with several shots at seeing 70 degrees.
Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no organized systems on the horizon. More active pattern then looks to set up toward the end of next week as upper flow re-amplifies, though details are few this far out.
Aviation
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Light rain or drizzle will continue overnight and then on Friday morning. IFR CIGS will improve into the MVFR category, then VFR by early to mid afternoon. North/northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts of 30-40 kts expected late morning through mid afternoon before winds ease during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Marine
Issued at 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Gale Warning remains on track for the Bay and Lake as northerly winds ramp up following cold FROPA later this evening. HREF probabilistic guidance is currently showing a 65 to 95% signal for 10-meter wind gusts exceeding 39 mph, which should translate pretty well to gale force gusts over our marine zones. Waves will build 4 to 7 ft on the Bay and 6 to 10 ft on the Lake during this time. Have opted to throw out a wind down Small Craft Advisory along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters on this shift, as waves remain elevated through around 08Z Saturday as winds shift to more westerly.
Grb Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ020-030-031- 035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ022.
UPDATE.........Eckberg DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Eckberg MARINE.........Goodin