Key messages
- Blustery northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph today, especially along the lakeshore.
- High-end gale force winds are expected over Lake Michigan today through this evening. A waterspout or two will be possible this afternoon and night.
- Temperatures to drop just below freezing (inland from Lake Michigan) tonight into Saturday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect for most areas. A Frost Advisory is in effect elsewhere.
Short Term
Issued 1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Today through Friday Night:
The winds increased quickly across MN, IA and southern WI last evening as low pressure strengthened over northeast IL and southern Lake Michigan. The cyclogenesis was in response to a strong and amplifying mid level trough digging into the Upper Great Lakes region and the right entrance region of the upper jet overhead. Strong cold air advection is underway with these blustery west winds over southern WI. The winds dried out the low levels and ended the drizzle. However, areas toward central WI are just on the north side of the stronger isallobaric winds which is keeping the low clouds and drizzle lingering there longer.
Another push of cold air advection will arrive mid morning in southern WI as that mid level trough makes its way across WI. This will turn the winds more northwesterly and give the gusts another boost. By late this afternoon, strong north winds will be rushing down Lake Michigan and also through WI in the wake of that trough. Expect peak wind gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range during the late afternoon. Highest gusts will be right along the lakeshore. They should remain just below wind advisory criteria (45 mph) but this will be the place to watch.
With the cold air flowing over the relatively warm water of Lake Michigan, there will be a lot of low level instability and thus a chance for a few thunderstorms. Also with this instability will come the potential for a waterspout or two over the southern open waters. The strong winds will probably limit that potential, but the ingredients are there.
The 850mb temps will drop below freezing this afternoon and remain there through tonight as a cold air mass briefly drops in. With winds and clouds diminishing after sunset, and especially after midnight as surface high pressure quickly pushes in, we will have the chance to decouple and allow for efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s by late evening and are expected to bottom out at around 30 degrees (28 to 31) inland from Lake Michigan early Saturday morning. We upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning (this includes Sheboygan county) and added a Frost Advisory for the rest of the lakeshore counties (Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha).
Cronce
Long Term
Issued 1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Saturday through Thursday:
Temperatures will quickly recover on Saturday as the low exits and strong high pressure sets up over the Midwest. Yet another surface trough developing in the Northern Plains will keep our pressure gradient tight over WI on Sat, so expect breezy southwest winds (but only to around 25 mph) and highs recovering into the mid to upper 50s. Breezy southwest winds will continue Sunday and highs should manage to reach the lower 60s.
The warm-up will continue through Thursday as we largely remain in southerly flow. Highs will be in the 60s, but get up to around 70 by Wednesday.
The weather will remain largely dry from Saturday through Thursday. There is one weak shortwave that cold bring a period of clouds and a few sprinkles Wed nt.
Cronce
Aviation
Issued 1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Gusty westerly winds helped to dry out the low levels which ended the LIFR ceilings and areas of drizzle. While areas toward central WI are still stuck in that lower stuff for now, that will dry out as the night goes on. Ceilings improved to MVFR and will remain there through the mid to late morning. Winds will shift to the northwest by noon and then to the north by late afternoon. The north winds will pack a punch this afternoon and early evening as colder air rushes into the region. Clouds will diminish in coverage during the evening and winds will diminish overnight.
Cronce
Marine
Issued 1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Low pressure of 29.7 inches over northeast IL will deepen to around 29.4 inches as it shifts into the eastern Great Lakes today. Expect a northerly wind shift tonight to increase to high- end gales by late Friday morning as the low departs while a strong high pressure around 30.7 inches builds into the Plains. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the open waters of Lake Michigan Friday morning into Friday night.
Light rain will continue over the north half overnight, with drier conditions over the south half. Lake effect showers and a few thunderstorms are possible during the day along the back side of departing low pressure. A few waterspouts are possible in the afternoon showers/thunderstorms, particularly over the south half of Lake Michigan.
As the high sinks toward the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, strong low pressure around 29.0 inches will develop in northern Manitoba through the weekend. The tight pressure gradient may bring southwest gales to Lake Michigan on Sunday, primarily over the north half.
Cronce
Mkx Watches/Warnings/Advisories
WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068- WIZ069-WIZ070...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday.
Frost Advisory...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday.
Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Friday to 10 PM Friday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM Friday.
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