Key messages
- The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning and expanded slightly to the south and east. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area tonight. Frost is be possible Saturday night but not as widespread.
- Winds gusting up to 45 mph can be expected during the daylight hours Friday. The probability of wind headlines being needed is 30-35%.
- A warm-up next week will send temperatures back above normal for late October.
Short Term /Through Saturday/
Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Freeze warnings and frost advisories have been issued for late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Winds will gust up to 45 mph during the daylight hours Friday as the trop fold and wind max move through the area. Interestingly, the very short range models do not push the 45+ mph gusts into the area. Cloud cover will limit the amount of deep mixing but I would not be surprised if some localized gusts to 50 mph occur.
Trends with the winds will need to be watched today for a possible wind headline. The current probabilities of a wind headline is 30-35 percent.
Tonight into Saturday morning the key message is the cold temperatures. Areas roughly north of a Sterling, IL to Fairfield, IA line have at least a 50 percent probability of seeing temperatures around freezing. If the current negative delta trend on lows tonight continues, the freeze warning may need to be expanded further to the south and east. Frost is a given with winds dropping to 5 mph or less after midnight.
Long Term /Saturday Night Through Thursday/
Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Saturday night through Thursday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence on temperatures trending above normal.
Saturday night into Sunday will be another chilly night with frost again possible but not as widespread as Friday night into Saturday. Headlines for frost may be needed.
Starting Sunday and continuing through the week a general warm-up will be seen with temperatures trending above normal for late October.
Aviation /12Z Tafs Through 12Z Saturday/
Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
A positively tilted upper trough to move through eastern IA and northwest IL this morning, with low MVFR stratus moving over the terminals from northwest to southeast. Some brief IFR cigs may occur at DBQ. Isolated to scattered instability showers are possible today, with a roughly 3-hr window at any terminal for brief MVFR vsbys. Confidence in location too low to include prevailing and thus have kept PROB30 wording with this issuance. A strengthening pressure gradient combined with deep mixing to bring strong northwest winds gusting between 25 and 35kts today, with a low probability (<10%) of higher gusts. 37kts this afternoon. Winds to decrease under 10kts after sunset with decreasing clouds.
Dvn Watches/Warnings/Advisories
IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076-077-087. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ078-088- 089-098-099. IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ016>018- 024>026-034-035. MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Gross