Key Messages
Updated at 145 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026
- Rain chances return this afternoon into tonight, especially in northern areas, as a front arrives from the west.
- Much cooler conditions are expected this weekend with the first frost of the season likely for the Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the Tennessee/North Carolina mountains Sunday morning. A warming trend will follow.
Discussion
Issued at 145 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026
The ridge and high pressure over the Southeast break down as a deep trough moves into the Midwest and then into the Ohio Valley by afternoon. The surface low will move through the Great Lakes and into New England bringing a cold front through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. Winds will be gusty this afternoon and evening with gusts up to 30 mph possible at times. The best chance for showers will be Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee and along the East Tennessee mountains and foothills this afternoon through tonight. Elsewhere, showers, if any, will be isolated. Thunder chances will be low with low instability expected. A changeover to light snow in the late night/early morning hours will be possible on the highest mountain peaks with little to no accumulation expected.
This weekend will be dry and much cooler with highs in the 50s and lower 60s Saturday. Saturday will be breezy as well with gusts up to 25 mph likely at times. Only slightly warmer on Sunday with highs in the mid 60s. Temperatures will be cold enough for frost on Saturday and Sunday nights mainly in Southwest Virginia, Northeast Tennessee and the higher elevations.
Early and mid next week will be dry with highs warming into the 70s by Tuesday as ridging and high pressure dominate the Southeast.
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 145 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Very low confidence in any fog at KTRI early this morning. Left it out for the TAF cycle. Timing continues to look consistent for strong FROPA later today, light rain showers look to predominantly exist north of Knoxville late in the day. TRI may see a few hours of light rain, mainly after 00z. Backside flow will be quite stout, yielding breezy northwestern flow.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 50 62 42 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 49 59 40 / 30 40 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 48 59 39 / 10 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 45 55 34 / 50 70 10 0
Mrx Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...Wellington