Key Messages
Updated at 1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
- A breezy cold front will arrive Friday morning, bringing much cooler temperatures for the weekend.
- The Cumberland Plateau and low lying areas west of the Plateau will see the first light frost of the season early Sunday morning.
- There are only very low rain chances with the front on Friday and no rain chances after Friday, so drought conditions are expected to worsen.
Short Term
(Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Friday will be more overcast than today was with the arrival of the cold front to our doorstep. Even though the cold front is mostly deprived of moisture, there is a low chance for some showers on the KY/TN state line. Not looking at any meaningful QPF with these chances, but a few hundredths are possible. Highs tomorrow will be varied over the area: in the mid 60s in the NW to the mid 70s in the SE.
The real change in air mass will be felt Saturday morning and into the weekend. Highs will be in the 60s, with morning lows in the 30s and 40s. So break out those jackets if you haven't already, you'll be needing them this weekend.
Long Term
(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
The colder airmass will have some spots on the Cumberland Plateau looking at their first frost of the season Sunday morning. After the cold front passes, high pressure will settle in for the work week, unfortunately warming our temperatures back into the upper 70s by mid week. Fortunately, we look to stay around seasonal normals for temperatures, and not get as anomalously warm as we were this week. The forecast has no precipitation after Sunday, so this is bad news for the ongoing drought in Middle Tennessee.
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
FROPA expected this morning will bring gusty NW winds for much of the upcoming day as well as MVFR cigs through mid afternoon. Cigs may remain MVFR at SRB and CSV through this entire period, however. Gusts 20-25 kts are forecast. Winds will continue to veer, becoming N after 09z (only mentioned in extended BNA TAF this issuance).
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Nashville 69 47 62 40 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 66 44 62 37 / 20 0 0 0 Crossville 73 41 54 33 / 20 10 0 0 Columbia 72 45 63 37 / 20 0 0 0 Cookeville 70 44 57 37 / 30 10 0 0 Jamestown 71 42 54 35 / 40 20 0 0 Lawrenceburg 73 45 61 36 / 20 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 72 45 63 37 / 20 0 0 0 Waverly 64 45 60 39 / 20 0 0 0
Ohx Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Sizemore