Key Messages
Updated at 246 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
- Cooler conditions return tonight into the weekend after a cold front brings low chances (10-20%) of showers to portions of the area this afternoon and evening.
Near Term
(Today) Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Clear and tranquil conditions early this morning across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure at the surface still in control and just some localized, patchy fog noted along the Paint Rock and Flint River Valleys. This will change later today as a stout upper trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will amplify and push a cold front through the Mid South and Tennessee Valley from late this morning into the afternoon/evening. The main impact with this system will be the strong, gusty winds thanks to a very tight pressure gradient that will shift to the NW to north in wake of the frontal passage. These northerly winds between 15-25 MPH will help to advect in a notably cooler, drier air mass. This can be seen with the temperature spread across the area, with mid to upper 70s forecast west of I-65 and lower 80s east of I-65. Dense cloud cover and some virga will likely accompany the frontal passage, with the forcing from the front likely generating some very low (10-20%) chances for rain showers later today.
Short Term
(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Friday night, temperatures are forecast to drop into the 40s after the front shifts southeast of the area and sfc high pressure funnels in. The aforementioned wind gusts and overall dry air mass will prevent any risk of fog formation. Saturday will bring continued gusty conditions along with much cooler temperatures than we've been experiencing- keeping highs in the 60s. Saturday night, temperatures plummet into the upper 30s to lower 40s and winds should lighten back into the 5-10 mph range. Frost is not currently anticipated, but will be monitored in future updates. Be sure to dress in layers this weekend if you have outdoor plans!
Long Term
(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
High pressure will remain dominant during the long term period as upper ridging slowly pushes east during the middle of the week. This will result in dry weather and gradually warmer temperatures with highs climbing back into the 70s on Monday then into the 80s on Thursday. We should see plenty of sunshine through the week and clear skies at night. While temperatures will rise back above seasonal norms, it will feel much more like fall compared to the record breaking heat we have seen recently.
Aviation
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
A cold front will bring cloud cover and strong, gusty NW winds in its wake today from late this morning through this afternoon and evening, During this timeframe, gusty northwest to north winds will develop ahead of the front between 15 to 25 MPH. Have also added LLWS during the day to account for stout southwesterlies just above the surface. In addition, low stratus will develop late in the period, with MVFR conditions developing after 00z.
Hun Watches/Warnings/Advisories
AL...None. TN...None.
NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....HC LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...AMP.24