Key messages
- Dramatically cooler today as a strong cold front sweeps through. Highs are forecast 27 to 32 degrees colder than yesterday.
- Saturday night still looks to have a high potential for a first frost across most of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s.
- Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to around or slightly above normal by mid week amid dry and settled weather with warm days and cool nights.
Discussion
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
A very strong cold front is moving int the northwestern part of the CWA this morning. Along the front a few showers will remain possible through early morning but the main impact will be starkly lower temperatures and gusty winds. Wind gusts 30-35 mph are occurring immediately behind the front before tapering back to 20 to 25 mph. Today will feel much different from yesterday with highs likely struggling to break 60 during the day underneath fairly persistent low clouds.
Behind the large shortwave trough pushing this front strong upper ridging builds in. Fairly breezy northwest winds are expected to persist through much of the day Saturday before the surface reflection of the upper ridge axis passes overhead Saturday night. At that point strong radiational cooling conditions set up with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s. Frost looks likely for a sizable chunk of the CWA, with a freeze very much possible in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. For messaging clarity will not issue a Frost Advisory with this shift but one will likely be required for at least part, if not all, of the CWA by Saturday night.
Deep layer ridging looks to control the pattern for the remainder of the forecast period. With dry, and settled conditions with low humidity and large diurnal temperature swings, highs in the mid 70s lows in the mid 40s which is close to seasonal norms.
Aviation /06Z Tafs Through 06Z Friday/
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Strong cold front sweeping in from the northwest, a period of gusts 25 to 35 kts is possible with the immediate frontal passage. Bouncy ceilings behind the front but prevailing low MVFR is presently anticipated for several hours behind the front. Gusty northwest winds (18 to 25 kts) are forecast through much of the TAF period.
Pah Watches/Warnings/Advisories
IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...