Key Messages
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
- A strong cold front will move across the Mid-South Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures through early week.
- Friday's cold front will bring elevated wildfire danger, particularly to areas along and west of Interstate 55, as winds gust up to 30 mph along dry fuels. Elevated winds and low relative humidity will moderate by sunset Friday evening.
- Dry weather is expected to persist over the next seven days.
Discussion
(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
A muggy October night is present across Mid-South after another record-breakingly warm day. Friday will be a different story as a strong cold front, currently extending across southeastern Missouri and central Arkansas, sweeps across our area. Temperatures and dewpoints will begin to plummet overnight and into the day Friday. Winds will also begin to sustain around 15- 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph early Friday and persisting through sunset. A combination of abnormally dry fuels, decreased relative humidity, and elevated winds will lead to an elevated fire danger threat Friday. Avoid any recreational burning and properly extinguish and dispose of cigarettes Friday as wildfires can start easily and spread quickly under the aforementioned conditions.
High temperatures Friday will be 15-30 degrees lower than Thursday with readings in the mid 60s to upper 70s. As ample dry air and lowered dewpoints will be associated with this cold front, little to no precipitation is expected as this front moves across the Mid-South Friday. Cold air advection and an almost polar in nature airmass will trail behind this leading front resulting in a below normal weekend with cool mornings and pleasant days. Sunday morning will be the chilliest over the next seven days with areas mainly over West Tennessee seeing readings in the upper 30s and the rest of the area in the lower 40s. NBM probs have a 30-50% chance of seeing lows <37 degrees over mainly Northwest Tennessee resulting in potential frost early Sunday morning.
Temperatures will begin to moderate closer to normal by Monday as cool high pressure begins to build slightly east of our area. Ensembles are hinting at an omega block setting up in the upper levels across the CONUS. Under this pattern, dry weather will continue over the next seven days and temperatures will begin to edge back above normal by Tuesday. This warming pattern will continue through the end of the week with much of the area seeing highs well into the 80s by as early as Wednesday.
AEH
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
A cold front extended through roughly the northwest third of AR at 04Z, and was continuing to make eastward progress across the state. MVFR CIGS and surface gusts greater than 20KT trailed the front by 50 to 70 miles.
00Z guidance depicts less persistent MVFR CIG potential for the Midsouth TAF sites following frontal passage later this morning. The main impact will remain gusty northwest winds, which should remain fairly constant in direction and speed after midmorning. We'll lose some wind speed after sunset, but the relatively well- mixed polar airmass will continue to support some gust potential well into Friday evening.
Fire Weather
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
A strong cold front will move across the Mid-South beginning early Friday morning. Post-frontal relative humidity values will drop below 40 percent Friday afternoon. Elevated 20 ft northwest winds around 15-20 mph will accompany decreased relative humidity. Areas generally along and west of a line from Dyersburg, TN to Oxford, MS, will result in an elevated fire danger risk Friday afternoon. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for northeast central AR, NW MS, and far SW TN. Winds will gradually diminish into the upcoming weekend. No appreciable rainfall is expected over the next seven days.
Meg Watches/Warnings/Advisories
AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...PWB