Key Messages
Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
-Isolated to widely scattered showers possible across the central and north central half of the state through early this morning.
-Elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on today over portions of southern to southeast Arkansas. Red Flag Warning has been issued for far southern sections of the area for today.
-Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas.
Discussion
Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Radar early this morning shows scattered showers across parts of central and north central Arkansas. The showers are associated with the upper shortwave trough moving across the central and northern plain dragging an attendant cold front through the state through this afternoon. Behind the front, cooler and breezy conditions will develop and then persist across the state through at least early this afternoon across the state. Winds will veer from south/southeast ahead of the boundary to north/northwest behind the boundary. Winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common with gusts to 30 mph possible across the state. By this evening, the upper trough will push into the eastern Great Lakes region and cold front will exit the state, with northwest flow becoming established across the state.
Model guidance keeps the state within northwest flow through at least the first half of the upcoming work week. The aforementioned trough that is dragging a cold front through the state today, will move to the lower Appalachians region on Saturday. The trough will move to the Carolinas region by Sunday with both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF showing the trough deepening by Saturday night into Sunday. At the same time, high pressure over the Bay of Campeche will expand northward into the western and northwest Gulf coast region Saturday night into Sunday. The cooler and drier air behind the front filtering into the state will lead to morning lows across the state in the 40s across the southern two thirds of the state this weekend, Lows across the northern half will be in the mid to upper 30s on Saturday and Sunday. Some patchy frost in higher terrain areas is not out of the question. High temperatures this weekend will run around 5 degrees below normal for the state through the end of the weekend.
As we head into the new work week, high pressure will continue to expand northward into the central Plains by late Sunday into Monday, as the upper trough and cut off low that brought cooler and drier air to the state continues to strengthen/deepen over the eastern seaboard. The upper trough will push off the eastern US coast as into the Atlantic Ocean by Monday. This will allow for the ridge axis of the ridge to move westward toward Arkansas with winds veer from north/northwest on Sunday night into Monday to south/southeast by Monday across the state. With the return of south to southeast flow across the state, temperatures will remain to above normal by the middle of the next work week.
Aviation
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
A cold front continues to push across this morning across the state. Along and ahead of the front, some MVFR ceilings have been observed associated with frontal passage. VFR conditions will persist through most of the forecast period. Expect breezy north to northwest winds to persist through sunset, then diminish afterwards.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Batesville AR 69 45 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 74 44 68 39 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 62 39 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 70 44 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 70 46 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 74 48 67 43 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 68 41 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 64 42 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 67 45 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 72 44 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 70 43 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 71 44 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 71 46 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
Lzk Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ065>069.
DISCUSSION...76 AVIATION...76