Key Messages
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
- A powerful, dry cold front will be moving through the region Friday morning, bringing much cooler temperatures, significantly drier air, and gusty northwest winds.
- A Red Flag Warning is in effect to highlight increased fire weather danger from incoming dry air and gusty winds.
- Behind the front, Saturday will see cooler than average temperatures, followed by a steady warming trend into next week, with dry weather throughout.
Discussion
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Recent guidance has continued to speed up the progression of this cold front pushing in from the northwest overnight tonight and into Friday morning. Some radar returns have been present along the front, which is currently draped from north central TX to western AR. There could be some light showers that accompany the front as it begins to push into the Four State Region overnight, but very little accumulation is expected. The I-30 corridor should cool into the 50s just before daybreak Friday thanks to the fropa and peak radiational cooling.
Current guidance has the cold front stretching roughly from Deep East TX up into southwest AR by sunrise and pushing southeast of the region by mid-late morning. The front will immediately bring cooler temperatures and the northwesterly wind shift. A Wind Advisory has been issued to account for sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible through Friday evening. The drier airmass is expected to lag a few hours behind the front, fully encompassing the area by early afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the same time period to account for the elevated fire danger that will be in place with the gusty winds and RH's of 25 to 35 percent. With the conditions on Friday and the prolonged drought, wildfire starts and spreading will occur much quicker. Public interests should consider temporarily postponing any outdoor burning. These products may need extending into the weekend depending on how incoming data trends.
Even with the front long pushed to the southeast, more seasonable temperatures will linger into the weekend. Temperatures could dip down into the upper 30s for portions of southwest AR early Sunday morning with other areas dropping into the 40s. But highs in the 60s and 70s will once again give way to mid to upper 80s by the middle of next week as ridging redevelops over the southeast CONUS.
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
For the 16/06z TAF Period...A cold front will continue to push through the region overnight into early Friday morning. Winds in wake of the front will shift to the northwest and will be breezy at times, with gusts up to 35 mph. MVFR cigs will also move in behind the front through around the lunch hours on Friday. Those cigs will go away, but will keep some mid and high clouds over the region through the end of the TAF period. Winds will also diminish by the end of the period, but gusts could still approach 20 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 1 AM Saturday.
/20/
Spotter Information Statement
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Spotter activation may be needed during the day Friday in the event of wildfire development.
/26/
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
SHV 50 68 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 50 70 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 42 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 46 68 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 46 69 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 48 67 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 48 68 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 51 70 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
Shv Watches/Warnings/Advisories
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.
TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...20