Dallas/Fort Worth forecast discussion

Short Term

(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Latest surface observations show that a strong cold front has almost cleared our CWA with breezy north winds and areas of light rain continuing. A band of light rain extends behind the front from Comanche northeast into the Metroplex and then up to the Red River, however little additional push to the southeast is expected. We'll likely see some additional light showers develop across Central TX into the early morning hours. Significantly cooler air behind the front lags a bit and is generally spreading south out of Oklahoma at this hour where temperatures are in the upper 50s.

While modest forcing for ascent is still present across the Southern Plains at this time, the main upper trough will continue to pull off to the northeast through the early morning hours. This will allow strong isentropic downglide to commence in the next few hours and will quickly begin to erode the remaining precipitation and cloud cover through mid morning. The main concern for the rest of the day will be the strong post frontal winds as a 1040mb surface high builds into the Plains. Strong gradient winds have already begun across the region with sustained speeds 15-20 kt, but as the morning progresses, 45-55 kt winds above the surface will begin to mix down. This will particularly be the case on the back edge of the eroding cloud deck where locally deeper mixing occurs as the sun peeks through. High end wind gusts through this afternoon will likely be at or above 50 mph in a few locations. The current Wind Advisory will remain in effect through this evening.

Winds will diminish some this evening, but a fairly strong gradient will remain in place through tonight resulting in a breezy first half of the night. High pressure settles into the region early Saturday with winds diminishing further under sunny skies. High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 60s after starting out in the 40s.

Dunn

Long Term

(Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The nice weather will continue through the first half of the week as high pressure remains in place and subtle mid level ridging builds through the Plains. We'll start off Sunday morning in the upper 30s and lower 40s with highs climbing into the upper 60s by afternoon. Temperatures will steadily climb through the week into the mid 70s and lower 80s by Monday and Tuesday. A pronounced upper trough will remain off the West Coast during this time with mid level ridging in place across the Plains. Weak southerly flow will return to North Texas, but we'll remain relatively dry through the end of the week with PW values around 1 inch or less. Temperatures will continue to warm through late week with highs back in the upper 80s by Thursday. No significant rain chances are expected through the week.

Dunn

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Strong north winds will continue to push drier air into the region through the morning and we're already seeing ceilings lift and erode back to the northwest. We'll start the TAFs off with BKN/OVC050 and maintain VFR through the period with north winds gusting above 35 kt. Winds will diminish some by late afternoon and especially overnight. There is a low probability of some wrap around clouds trying to spread back in from the north later tonight, but we'll hold off on any cigs in the latest TAF. VFR will prevail on Saturday.

Dunn

Spotter Information Statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops

Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  48  65  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                67  48  66  45 /  20   0   0   0 
Paris               65  45  66  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              63  45  63  41 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            64  45  65  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              66  48  66  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             66  47  66  44 /  10   0   0   0 
Corsicana           67  48  66  45 /  20   0   0   0 
Temple              68  48  68  44 /  20   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       62  43  63  39 /  10   0   0   0 

Fwd Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.