Key Messages
Updated at 1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
- Cool and breezy conditions continue through Friday.
- The first freeze of the season is likely for much of the Caprock early Saturday morning.
- Temperatures warm back near normal next week.
Short Term
(Now through Friday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
The plume of enhanced atmospheric moisture responsible for the last couple of days of active weather has finally begin shifting to our east. Dry weather is now in place and will continue through the near term as flow aloft weakens and subsidence persists on the backside of the departing system. Blustery north winds will continue through the rest of tonight and into most of Friday in the wake of our earlier cold front, with sustained speeds expected to be in the 20 to 30 mph range given surface pressure rises on the order of 3 to 5 mb in 3 hours. Lingering high cloud cover and the magnitude of the northerly breeze will prevent temperatures from falling too dramatically overnight, but we still expect lows in the 40s area- wide early Friday morning. Friday will be the chilliest day this area has seen in quite some time with temperatures only expected to top out in the mid to upper 50s Friday afternoon. In fact, the last time that Lubbock measured a daytime high below 60 degrees was way back on Mar. 16. Winds will begin to diminish Friday afternoon and will decrease quite quickly by Friday evening as a surface ridge settles over the TX Panhandle.
Long Term
(Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1011 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
The first freeze of the season still looks likely for portions of the region late Friday night through early Saturday morning. This will be driven by conditions favorable for excellent radiational cooling, with clearing skies and very light winds as the surface ridge builds directly overhead. General consensus of guidance still favors lows on Saturday morning in the upper 20s over the SW TX Panhandle and low 30s over most of the South Plains. Should clouds be slower to clear than currently expected, temps may be able to remain above freezing, however confidence is high enough in temps near or just below 32F to support a Freeze Watch over the entire Caprock from Friday night through early Saturday morning. This would be an early first freeze for this region, with the climatological average first freeze for many locations still two or three weeks out.
Surface flow will gradually obtain a stronger southerly component on Saturday as surface ridging shifts to our east, but will be weak enough to support one more very cool day with highs still in the 50s and low 60s Saturday afternoon. Southerly winds will become more robust Sunday and beyond, which combined with the building of a modest upper ridge axis will boost temperatures back towards normal for this time of year next week. Models are in good agreement keeping our area dry through at least Tuesday, with mid/upper moisture and precipitation chances possibly returning during the second half of the week as a deep upper low settles to our west. For now though, a dry forecast is still favored with poor model consensus at this lead time.
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
VFR is anticipated through the TAF period. However, strong northerly winds will persist through the day on Friday and not decrease until early in the evening.
Lub Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.
SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...01