Key Messages
Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026
- Brisk conditions will prevail behind a backdoor cold front today, but with speeds well below yesterday's.
- The first freeze of the season is forecast for portions of eastern, central and northwest NM tonight into Saturday morning.
- Precipitation chances return Sunday across western NM, then increase and spread east across the area from mid through late week as a Pacific storm system impacts the region.
Short Term
(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Wind speeds are trending down more rapidly than previously forecast behind the backdoor front, so have cancelled the High Wind Warning for the middle RGV and South Central Highlands. If current trends continue, we'll likely cancel the remainder of the warning by sunrise. Strong cold air advection behind the front is resulting in brisk conditions and that will continue for most areas today. The current Freeze Warning across portions of northeast and east central NM will need winds to diminish to work out, which is still likely at this time. High temperatures today will range from 5 to 15 degrees below average. Significant drying of the atmosphere is expected today into Saturday as ridging aloft strengthens as the retrograding upper low pulls up stationary offshore of the Baja Peninsula. With a very dry atmosphere and decoupling winds this evening, an ideal radiational cooling setup will bring the coldest night so far this season and a Freeze Watch is in effect for much of the lower elevations including the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros. Below average temperatures will continue Saturday, with highs in the 60s most areas.
Long Term
(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Moisture advection will be the rule from Saturday night through Monday as the Baja low fills and ejects northeast into the region, bringing Pacific moisture and increasing chances for precipitation. This will be a top-down moistening process favoring western NM through Monday. All eyes turn to a potent upper level low diving south offshore of CA Tuesday, which is forecast to turn inland over SoCal on Wednesday. PWATs are forecast to rise further through Thursday as the upper level low fills and lifts northeast across the region, steering remnant tropical moisture into NM. Thursday still looks to be the wettest day next week and our forecast PoPs continue to trend up. This will be a warmer system, so rain is likely from the mid-slopes of the mountains into the lower elevations with snow across the peaks. The 00Z medium range model solutions are generally agreeable through at least Thursday, so forecast confidence is moderate to high for a return to wetter conditions next week.
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. Strong winds behind a backdoor cold front are currently impacting central and western terminals, but are forecast to trend down while remaining gusty through Friday morning.
Fire Weather
Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. Gusty winds will continue behind a backdoor cold front today, but well below yesterday's speeds. Drier and colder conditions will prevail behind the cold front through Saturday, with vent rates trending down. A Pacific disturbance will bring higher humidity and chances for wetting precipitation to western NM Sunday, then spread east into central NM Monday into Tuesday. A more significant Pacific low will impact the region from mid through late week, with higher humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation that will favor areas from the central mountain chain westward.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Farmington...................... 64 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 64 26 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 58 29 60 36 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 62 30 64 36 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 57 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 58 30 59 36 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 59 33 62 36 / 0 0 5 20 Magdalena....................... 55 30 56 37 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 54 28 57 35 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 64 33 66 37 / 0 0 5 20 Glenwood........................ 71 39 68 41 / 0 0 10 20 Chama........................... 59 30 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 57 34 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 59 28 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 33 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 51 27 56 28 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 54 20 61 23 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 60 27 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 55 29 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 64 32 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 58 31 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 29 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 36 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 34 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 34 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 35 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 65 33 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 67 34 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 66 32 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 68 34 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 66 33 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 63 34 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 34 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 66 37 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 29 59 37 / 5 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 59 30 62 38 / 5 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 58 27 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 25 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 53 26 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 55 26 59 35 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 54 26 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 59 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 27 56 36 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 48 25 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 55 24 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 57 24 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 54 27 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 54 29 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 55 26 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 62 33 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 58 30 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 60 31 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 58 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 59 30 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 60 31 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 63 34 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 58 30 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 56 28 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
Abq Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NMZ201-217>220-222>225-228>237-239-241.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ222-223- 228>230.
High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ220-225.
SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11