Key Messages
Updated at 1033 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026
- A strong backdoor cold front is moving through tonight, bringing gusty winds and well below normal temperatures into the weekend.
- High Wind Warning is in effect for far west Texas and portions of southern New Mexico into Friday. Wind gusts to 60 mph are possible along mountain west slopes.
- Scattered rain showers for the middle of next week as temperatures rebound.
Discussion
Issued at 949 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026
A potent cold front is pushing through the Borderland this evening, bringing strong NE winds behind it. Gusts over 50 mph have already been seen E of the US 54 corridor. The strength of the sfc high behind the front is more in-line with what we tend to see in the middle of winter (1045mb-ish over central high plains on Fri). This will result in an impressive pressure gradient across the CWA as the front sweeps through in the near-term. West mtn slopes will see the gustiest winds, reaching 60 mph or higher. The strongest winds are expected to occur from now through early Fri AM with winds easing a bit during the day on Fri and shifting more easterly. Generally 25-35 mph sustained winds are modeled with a pocket of lighter winds from Las Cruces up towards Holloman AFB. No changes have been made to the wind headlines. Forecast remains on track.
Dust models, including the RRFS and NOAA AQ model, show a signal for blowing dust through the overnight, favoring S Otero County and far west TX. Low chance of 1 mile VIS in isolated areas, most likely in El Paso County. Any dust lifted off White Sands should get blocked by the San Andres and struggle to reach the upper RGV. The dust threat lowers Fri AM and shifts out W towards the Lordsburg Playa where winds remain strong. Confidence is lower in seeing dust impacts in Hidalgo Co compared to eastern areas, where BLDU Advisories are in effect until 9am Fri.
An upper low cuts off from the flow off the Baja coast for the rest of the week, pulling moisture into it. A ridge of high pressure extends from the NW at the same time, keeping most of the moisture to our south. Precip chances remain near zero into the weekend as winds subside through Sat. The upper low opens up into a shortwave on Sun, bringing some of its moisture into the region and slight rain chances for western areas. Then, a Pacific storm system dives down the West Coast, pulling more subtropical moisture northward through midweek from the Pacific. PWs climb towards 1" with low- medium rain chances area-wide late in the period. A low flood threat is present as NBM 90th %-ile shows 24-hr rain amounts of 1-2" Wed and Thu. Confidence is low in impacts for this midweek rain event.
Temperatures crash to unseasonably cool levels (highs 10-20 degrees below normal) behind tonight's front. Lowland highs in the low-mid 60s are forecast through Sat with cold air advection ongoing. It'll feel more like winter than early fall, especially in the Sacs Fri AM as wind chills reach the teens. Lowland areas to the N and E are likely to dip into the 30s Sat AM with patchy frost. Temperatures rebound towards normal early next week.
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Backdoor front has moved in, increasing winds from NE. Gusts up to 40kts, excluding KLRU which looks to be in a pocket of lighter winds. Dust models are picking up on BLDU for KELP early in period, most likely from 6-9z. Confidence remains low for VIS reductions at KELP. BLDU chances are low at best for the other terminals. LLWS can be seen also overnight. Winds lighten a bit during the day and shift more E, subsiding more late in the period. Mainly SKC throughout.
Fire Weather
Issued at 927 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Low end breezy winds from the north will define this early afternoon. Min RHs in the lowlands are in the mid-to-upper teens and in the upper-20s-to-low-30's across the mountains. A drastic change is afoot this evening as a backdoor cold front arrives from the northeast, shifting winds eastward and dropping temperatures to at least 20 degrees below average. Sustained wind speeds tonight and into tomorrow will range from 25-35 mph are wide, with wind gusts exceeding 60 mph along the west slopes of the mountains. Min RHs Friday and Saturday will continue to be in the mid-to-upper teens in the lowlands, and fall to the 20s in the mountains. Temperatures will gradually warm up and winds will die down on Sunday, with a chance for rain early next week.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
El Paso 54 65 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 59 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 48 66 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 47 68 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 27 41 23 46 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 49 66 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 44 61 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 67 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 66 44 61 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 56 65 47 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 52 63 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 54 68 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 45 56 37 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 67 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 64 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 51 68 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 48 68 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 71 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 67 46 63 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 49 66 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 34 50 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 33 52 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 33 50 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 37 58 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 46 65 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 67 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 61 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 45 64 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 71 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 67 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 63 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 65 46 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 64 43 60 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 59 42 58 / 0 0 0 0
Epz Watches/Warnings/Advisories
TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 AM MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.
NM...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT Friday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley.
High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Friday night for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel.
High Wind Warning until noon MDT Friday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
Wind Advisory until noon MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Northern Dona Ana County-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 AM MDT Friday for Otero Mesa- Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.
FORECASTER...39-Aronson