Synopsis
Temperatures will remain below normal through this weekend. A strong surface high pressure area moving into the area will bring strong to very strong east to southeast winds today into Saturday. These winds are expected to be especially strong and potentially damaging, and will likely be impactful to those with outdoor plans today and Saturday. There is also a 20-50 percent chance of rain Saturday into next week.
Discussion
Gusty east winds have been cranking up since late last night with some of the highest gusts between 55 and 75 mph as of 230 am. VAD wind profiles on Tucson radar (KEMX) showed E-SE winds up to 50 kts between 6k and 8k feet. Surface pressure difference across the area was around 12 mbs. Early morning satellite imagery was showing brief periods of lenticular cloud development over some of the mountains. Strongest winds are expected later this morning as the gradient tightens between upper low off the northern Baja coast and the 1040 to 1043 mb surface high across the Colorado front range. High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory remain in effect for today into Saturday.
The above mentioned upper low will pull in remnant moisture from decaying tropical storm Simon, which was south of Cabo this morning, over the next 24 hours. This upper low will then lift and open up across Arizona Sunday and Monday and bring a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to SE AZ. A slow moving Pacific upper level trof will keep unsettled conditions Tuesday into early next week with daily chances of showers (20-50 percent) each day. Daily high temperatures will remain below normal for much of the next 7 days.
Aviation
Valid through 17/12Z. Skies will be SKC for the majority of the fcst pd with FEW-SCT clouds 6k-10k from KTUS-KOLS W aft 16/21Z. SFC winds ELY/SELY 25-40 kts with gusts 45-60 kts. This will be a mountain-wave pattern, with very strong descending winds occuring on the leeward side of the higher terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
Fire Weather
Temperatures will remain below normal through this weekend. A strong surface high pressure area will move into Southeast Arizona from the east this evening resulting in strong to very strong east to southeast winds today into Saturday. These winds are expected to be especially strong and potentially damaging. Locations on the lee-side of the higher terrain, terrain gaps, and east-to-west oriented valleys will be susceptible to the strongest winds this morning. For these areas expect speeds 35-45 mph with gusts 55-75 mph this morning into the evening, then 25-35 mph with gusts 50-60 mph Friday night into Saturday. Minimum relative humidity remains above 25-40 percent through the weekend. There will also be a 20-50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into next week.
Twc Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for AZZ503>509- 511>514. Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST Saturday for AZZ502-515. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM MST Saturday for AZZ503>509- 511>514.
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