Key Messages
Updated at 545 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
- Cooler air continues filtering into the area today, lasting into the weekend.
- Freeze Watch in effect for far northwest OK tonight into Saturday morning.
- Mostly dry with a warming trend next week.
Near Term
(Through Friday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Much cooler temperatures continue to advect into the area behind yesterday's cold front. Expect lows this morning to dip into the low 40s across northern/western OK with low 50s across southeast OK. Breezy northerly winds will continue through the day today helping keep temperatures quite cool, in the 50s and low 60s for highs. Some uncertainty exists regarding the degree of cloud cover and whether we see a scattered vs broken stratus deck this afternoon. Our forecast highs are based on a more optimistic cloud forecast but if low clouds are more extensive, highs could be a bit cooler in spots (low 50s vs forecast of upper 50s).
Winds are expected to diminish tonight, especially across northern/western OK. With skies becoming mostly clear this should lead to excellent radiational cooling conditions. Lows Saturday morning could approach freezing across northwest OK, especially in sheltered and/or low lying areas, where a Freeze Watch remains in effect for Harper and Ellis counties. Elsewhere, lows will dip into the mid 30s to low 40s. Widespread frost and fog development is not anticipated tonight as even with light winds and extensive ground moisture from recent heavy rains, a dry airmass advecting over the area today should make it more difficult to achieve saturation near the ground. That said, as wet as the ground is would not be surprised to see some very localized frost and/or fog development in portions of western/northwestern OK in highly sheltered locations.
Ware
Short Term
(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
The surface ridge axis will settle over the area on Saturday, helping keep things cool with highs once again expected to be in the 50s in most areas. Fog formation may be a bit more favored Saturday night with some slight airmass modification/moistening, wet ground, and continued light winds and mostly clear skies.
The ridge will settle further to our southeast by Sunday as troughing over the Rockies promotes lee cyclogenesis to our west. Surface pressure falls will promote increasing southerly flow and a warming trend, with highs Sunday afternoon expected to make it back into the mid to upper 60s across the area under mostly sunny skies.
Ware
Long Term
(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
A warming trend and generally dry conditions are in store for the early to middle part of next week as upper ridging builds over the area and a large cutoff low develops along the California coast by the middle of next week. The only precipitation chance during this period (currently <10%) is across western/northwestern OK Monday into Tuesday as a weak shortwave lifts northeastward across NM/CO, but for now the bulk of the forcing is forecast to remain to our northwest. Better rain chances may accompany the western US trough late next week into next weekend, but model disagreement is high regarding the speed and amplitude of the trough as it begins to eject eastward.
Ware
Aviation
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds gradually decreasing later today/tonight. Northerly winds will remain breezy/gusty during the day but decrease late this afternoon/evening becoming light tonight.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Oklahoma City OK 58 39 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 60 37 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 61 40 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 57 33 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 58 36 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 64 43 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
Oun Watches/Warnings/Advisories
OK...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for OKZ004-009.
TX...None.
NEAR TERM...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...25