Key messages
- Much cooler air will arrive across the area today while lingering through the weekend with frost/freeze potential for much of the area Sat morning.
- Moderating temperatures are expected this week with a chance for showers late in the week.
Discussion
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Much colder air was arriving over the area early this morning with strong H85 caa underway. Afternoon highs may struggle to climb out of the lower 50s in some areas. The highest wind speeds are expected through the morning hours while gradually subsiding as we move through the day as the sfc pressure gradient gradually diminishes. A ridge of high pressure at the sfc is progged to settle over the area tonight bringing light winds under mostly clear conditions. This will result in robust radiational cooling leading to areas of frost tonight into Saturday morning with the first freeze of the season for parts of central/south central KS. The freeze watch was expanded southward to include most of central and parts of south central KS where lows in the upper 20s/around 30 are anticipated. Southerly winds will return to central KS on Saturday allowing temperatures to quickly moderate with highs returning to the lower 60s while another day of upper 50s is anticipated across much of eastern Kansas. A stable and tranquil weather regime is anticipated through early next week as the upper level pattern transitions to a SW mid/upper flow regime early in the week with breezy southerly winds lingering. Seasonable temperatures will return on Monday with above average temperatures persisting through the end of the work week with highs around 80. Some low pops were maintained late in the week as some subtle shortwave troughs ridge over the mid/upper ridge over the southern CONUS, but confidence in widespread wetting precipitation remains fairly low at this time.
Aviation /06Z Tafs Through 06Z Saturday/
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
VFR conditions will prevail across the region over the next 24hrs as surface high pressure builds southward. Northwest winds will increase for late tonight and remain gusty through the afternoon hours. Winds will diminish around sunset on Friday.
Ict Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-047>051-067. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ052-053- 068>072-082-083-091>094-098.
DISCUSSION...MM AVIATION...CDJ