Hastings forecast discussion

Update

Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

It's a chilly and windy morning across the area. Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the low 40s with northerly winds gusting 30-45mph. As the back edge of the departing trough/low swings over the area this morning, low stratus with a few embedded showers will slide across northeastern portions of the area. Any rain from these showers will be little more than sprinkles, but showers could bring gustier winds to the surface. Any sprinkles should come to an end by the mid morning hours (9-10am). Northerly winds gusting 30-45mph are expected to continue throughout the morning hours, with the strongest gusts across east/northeastern portions of the area. Winds steadily drop off this afternoon as the deepening low over the Midwest moves into the eastern U.S. and a high pressure system sets up over the area. Seasonably cool temperatures are expected today with highs topping out in the low 50s. Skies will be partly-mostly cloudy to start the day, with skies becoming clear by the late afternoon-early evening.

Under the influence of a seasonably cool airmass, clear skies, and light winds, temperatures will quickly drop after sunset. This will result in the seasons first freeze across the area. The freeze watch will likely be converted to a freeze warning later today as confidence is fairly high in widespread sub-freezing temperatures (26-31 degrees) tonight-Saturday morning. Can't rule out northwestern portions of the area climbing back above freezing by sunrise as warm air advection moves into the area, though at least a few hours of sub-freezing temperatures are still favored for these locations. After a cold start to the day, temperatures climb back towards normal by the afternoon with highs in the low 60s. Winds will be breezy during the daytime hours, gusting 20-35mph. Temperatures dip back into the upper 30s Sunday morning, though frost/freezing conditions are not anticipated. Breezy and seasonable weather continues Sunday with highs in the 60s. Otherwise the forecast remains on track through the end of the forecast period. Temperatures steadily climb throughout next week with highs in the 70s-low 80s by the middle-end of the week. Largely dry weather is anticipated through the middle of next week though can't completely rule out some low PoPs as disturbances move through the southwesterly flow aloft.

Discussion

Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rain from this morning is moving out of our area to the northeast with drier conditions now expected for most of the area, though some sprinkles could still fall in our northwestern areas. A cold front currently over the Sandhills will move southeast over our area this afternoon bringing steady north-northwesterly winds that could gust 30-40 MPH and clearing the clouds. While temps cool slightly behind the front, the steady winds prevents the temps from falling underneath the frosting threshold overnight for the majority of the area, with lows staying in the upper 30s-low 40s. A few portions in our north and west do drop into the frost thresholds, however the steady winds will prevent frost from forming.

The steady north-northwesterly winds continue through the daytime Friday bringing cool air down from the north and keeping highs in the low-mid 50s. Northern and eastern portions of the area will have some clouds in the morning but they clear in the afternoon. After sunset the winds begin to subside and with clear skies, temperatures are able to cool much more efficiently than the night before. Widespread lows in the upper 20s-low 30s are possible which would bring the first frost/freeze to the area. Southern portions of the area, especially north central KS, could stay warm enough to prevent a full freeze however, most models keep temps in the 30-34 range so the entire area is included in a Freeze Watch.

The upper level troughing that had brought the cooler air to the area begins to move east and a slight ridging pattern begins to setup into the weekend. As the ridging pattern builds into the area, temperatures will begin to warm again starting Saturday with highs reaching back into the upper 50s-low 60s. Temperatures continue to warm into next week with highs reaching the upper 60s-70s starting Sunday and could even flirt with 80 degrees in north central Kansas mid-week. Also, as the ridging persists over the area precip chances will remain low, though some models have chances returning mid-week. Aside from the low mid-week precip chances the area will largely remain dry through the end of next week.

Aviation /12Z Tafs Through 12Z Saturday/

Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

SCT-BKN MVFR CIGs possible through 16z, otherwise VFR conditions expected during TAF period. SCT-BKN stratus is ongoing across the area, at times CIGs will drop to MVFR but sub-VFR CIGs are not expected to be prevailing. Sub-VFR stratus clears out around 16z with skies clearing during the afternoon.

Northerly winds sustained around 20ks and gusting around 30kts are expected through the morning hours. Winds steadily weaken during the afternoon, with gusts dropping to 20kts by the mid afternoon, and becoming light and variable by 00z. Light and variable winds continue throughout the overnight hours, but settle at southerly late in the TAF period.

Gid Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019.

UPDATE...Davis DISCUSSION...McGrew AVIATION...Davis