Key messages
- Northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph this morning will gradually diminish through the afternoon.
- A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire area for late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Expect temperatures to fall as low as 30 degrees by Saturday morning.
- Dry conditions continue with a warming trend into next week. Next widespread chance for showers & storms won't be until late in the week.
Discussion
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Low clouds are moving in from the north overnight tonight with gusty winds out of the north. Looking at the overall pattern, a deep upper-level trough is bringing a surge of northerly winds into the Northern Plains tonight. These winds are amplified by a strengthening pressure gradient as a broad ridge over the Intermountain West pushes into the Plains. Winds will be strongest toward daybreak tomorrow morning with northerly winds gusting 30 to 40 mph, potentially higher in northeast Nebraska. With windy conditions and temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s, we'll see wind chill fall to near or even below freezing across much of our area Friday morning. As the trough shifts off to the east and high pressure builds in, winds will relax going into the afternoon with highs warming into the low-to-mid 50s.
This ridge slides east across the central CONUS bringing a transition back to southwesterly flow late Saturday. Mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s by Sunday morning. As southwesterly flow continues to advect in warmer air, we'll see temperatures climb into the mid-to-upper 60s Sunday afternoon with this warming trend continuing into next week.
While the weather remains quiet, the upper-level pattern continues to be fairly unstable with a series of shortwaves moving through amplifying warm-air advection across our area Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures potentially reach near 80 by Wednesday afternoon. We're watching another deep trough forecast to slide down the West Coast and deepen through the week next week. Weak shortwaves ahead of the main trough Wednesday and Thursday could bring a low chance of showers or storms. Our next good chance for more widespread showers and storms looks to be later next week with the arrival of the main trough.
Aviation /12Z Tafs Through 12Z Saturday/
Issued at 554 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
MVFR ceilings will continue pushing south through the morning, scattering out by late morning/early afternoon. Northwest winds will be gusting 30-40 kts this morning, but gradually diminish as clouds exit. Speeds drop below 10 kts by this evening and direction becomes southerly to southwesterly around 05Z or after.
Oax Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078- 088>093. IA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...CA