Key messages
- A cool and breezy day is expected today with highs in the low to mid 50s and northerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph.
- Near to below freezing temperatures possible over northern areas late Friday night into Saturday morning.
- A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning with a Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area.
Discussion
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
The cold front has moved through the area and overnight cold air advection has been left in its wake. This cold air advection will continue through the day today making out during the late morning/early afternoon with northerly winds gusting to 30-35 mph. In addition, a upper level trough will move through the area today ushering in mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. This coupled with the strong CAA will hold highs in the low to mid 50s. This evening a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area allowing winds to relax as the upper level trough shifts east allowing skies to clear tonight. This will create a good radiational cooling setup inviting the potential for the first freeze of the season across the northwestern and northern CWA and a first frost for much of the rest of the CWA. While this is not expected to be a hard or killing freeze with temperatures expected to fall into the low to mid 30s, any sensitive vegetation will need to be protected tonight. Tomorrow, the surface ridge of high pressure will remain in control providing for weak mixing. So, despite sunny skies, highs will hold in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Skies are expected to remain clear tonight night however, the surface ridge is expected to shift east of the area overnight. This will allow, light southerly winds to develop keeping temperatures from dropping below freezing however, patchy frost cannot be ruled out. Sunday, slight height rises coupled with modest WAA and sunny skies will drive highs back to seasonal normals in the mid to upper 60s.
The extended period looks mostly quiet with broad upper level ridging for the first half of the work week becoming more amplified over the central CONUS in the second half of the work week. This will produce a warming trend through the week with temperatures on Monday starting the week slightly above normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. However, highs by Thursday and Friday will move well above normal rising into the mid 70s to mid 80s. The next slight chance (15-25%) for precipitation doesn't arrive until Friday as a upper level trough move out from the southwestern CONUS into the central/northern Plains weakening as it does.
Aviation /00Z Tafs Through 00Z Saturday/
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
MVFR CIGs to continue eroding overnight with breezy NW winds about 10-15 kts with occasional gusts of 25 kts. Marginally MVFR cloud deck builds in from the north Friday morning with generally 15 kt NNW winds and gusts up to 30-35 kts during the day. Around sunset, winds will lighten and cloud cover will move out of the region, marking a return to VFR conditions late in the TAF period.
Eax Watches/Warnings/Advisories
MO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for MOZ001>007-011>016-020. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ008-017- 021>025-028>033-037>039-043-044. KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ025-102. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-060- 103>105.
DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...Macko