Springfield forecast discussion

Short Term /Through Sunday Night/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

It's a windy night as the backside pressure gradient of a textbook mid-latitude cyclone overspreads the region. Associated cold air advection with the 20-30 mph wind gusts have dropped temperatures into the 50s, on track for locations to reach the 40s as dawn arrives. Meanwhile, very thin streaks of light rain are progressing through the eastern Ozarks along the 850-700 mb portion of the cold front that stretches all the way from the low in Michigan, to north-central Mexico. Based on mesoanalysis, this cold front arguably then extends northwest into SW Arizona and SE California, where an upper-level low currently churns.

Cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s today:

Persistent cold air advection from 18-23 mph sustained north- northwesterly winds (with gusts up to 30-35 mph), paired with increasing low-level clouds from the comma head of the mid-latitude cyclone will keep temperatures quite cool today, with highs right around 50 for most locations except for extreme south-central Missouri where temperatures could reach near 60 F.

After brief morning sunshine, patches of light rain later:

HREF mean cloud layer output depicts the current cloud shield seen on infrared satellite imagery to clear to the southeast early this morning. This will allow for some brief sunshine before the aforementioned comma-head low-level clouds will overspread the region. Within this regime, forecast soundings depict a thin layer of moisture below dry air and capping aloft at 700 mb. Below 700 mb, short-term guidance actually depicts a very short layer of instability upwards of 50-75 J/kg. With northerly winds up the slope of the Ozark Plateau, this will likely create streaks of weak "convective" sprinkles across the area this afternoon.

Increasing confidence in patchy frost/freezes this weekend:

As the cold front dives through the Gulf, a rather abnormal high pressure system (~99.5th percentile for this time of year) will move through our region over the course of the weekend. This will keep highs cooler (well actually quite seasonable) in the 60s Saturday and Sunday. Lows are also forecast to be colder in the 30s, which will bring frost potential both Saturday and Sunday mornings. However, tonight into Sunday morning will still have wind speeds of 8-12 mph along with residual cloud cover, which should limit much of any frost potential. The much higher confidence falls on Saturday night and Sunday morning as the bulk of the high pressure brings calmer winds and clear skies. The best chance of frost appears to be in the eastern Ozarks where lows are forecast to range from 30-34 F, meaning that some areas, especially those in low-lying valleys, could see below 30 F.

Latest Frost probabilities (using <35 F as a proxy) are 15-40% along and north of I-44, and in the eastern Ozarks, on Saturday morning. Then, a 50-95% chance east of Highway 5 on Sunday morning.

Latest Freeze probabilities (<32 F) are only pockets of 5-10% Saturday morning (mainly in valleys). Then, a 20-50% chance in the eastern Ozarks Sunday morning.

For some context, the average first frost date for the eastern Ozarks ranges from Oct. 10-15, while the average first freeze data ranges from Oct. 17-22. So while we have had quite warm temperatures September and the first half of October, the first frost/freeze is actually coming around right on time in terms of climatology.

Long Term /Sunday Night Through Thursday/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Warming trend back to well above normal temperatures next week:

Global ensembles are then coming into better agreement on a slow wave progression of a digging trough/low over the SW CONUS. This will lead to a prolonged amplified ridging pattern over our area, renewing southerly surface flow, keeping weather dry, and initiating a warming trend to well above normal temperatures by the middle of next week. Highs Monday are forecast to be around 70 F, with highs reaching the lower 80s by Wednesday and Thursday. For context, normal highs for that time of year are in the upper 60s.

Currently, October (MTD) is the 2nd warmest on record, coming off of the warmest ever September on record. While the cool temperatures this weekend will put a dent in that placement, a return to persistent above normal temperatures will likely keep this October ranked amongst some of the warmest.

Aviation /00Z Tafs Through 00Z Saturday/

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A cold front continues to move across the area, lending to scattered showers and MVFR to IFR ceilings. VFR ceilings return as dry air filters in behind the front, but KSGF and KBBG remain just behind the front and may remain MVFR to IFR until as long as 08-09Z with any lingering showers. With the scattered nature of the showers, ceilings may bounce categories several times overnight, but should remain predominantly VFR after 09Z.

Gusty northwesterly winds up to 25-30kts behind the front will continue through the day Friday.

Sgf Watches/Warnings/Advisories

KS...None. MO...None.

SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Camden