Key messages
- Strong high pressure toward the north promotes elevated pressure gradient, resulting in breezy conditions today
- High pressure moves overhead tonight, reducing winds and leading to widespread frost/freeze Saturday morning
- Difference in timing is noted, but storm system late next week into next weekend could bring next precipitation chances
Discussion
Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Strong 1042 mb surface high pressure is currently centered over eastern MT and northern WY. A 1006 mb surface low is also centered over the Great Lakes. Between these features, an elevated pressure gradient is present, leading to breezy northwest winds across the forecast area later this morning. Bumped up the winds and gusts a few notches over NBM consensus, so expect winds 20-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Winds will gradually diminish as aforementioned high pressure begins to move southward through this afternoon and situates over the area late this afternoon. With clear skies and calm winds, expect a widespread freeze tonight and into Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area to account for this likelihood. Areas west of Route 283 will have a better potential for a harder, killing freeze with temperatures dropping into the middle 20s. Areas along and east of Route 283 still has a high probability of freezing temperatures, but generally temperatures are expected to be in the 29-32 degree range. These colder temperatures are short lived as return southerly flow emerges as the high pressure continues eastward over the central Mississippi Valley into this weekend. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60s on Saturday, with 70s returning Sunday. Lows in this timeframe will be in the mid to upper 30s Sunday morning, and 40s by Monday morning.
Temperatures continue to gradually build back around 80 by mid to late week as a ridge builds in ahead of a deepening and digging trough across the Western U.S. through next week. Our next chance of precipitation increases by late week next week and perhaps into next weekend. Globals differ on timing and placement of a potential development of a possible lee cyclone. GFS is a bit more progressive and farther north with the ENS slower, stronger, and farther south. In either case, should be on the warm side of the storm. Instability is meager among the models, leading to thunderstorm chance uncertainty. With the sweeping cold front getting well into the Gulf, any potential moisture return back into our area may be difficult to accomplish. POPs are low in the forecast as of now, with only chance categories around 30-40% Thursday and Friday. Climatologically, continued widespread rains like we've seen are harder to come by in these typically drier months. Otherwise, plenty of time to see how this upcoming pattern shakes out.
Aviation /12Z Tafs Through 12Z Saturday/
Issued at 436 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Good flying weather will continue at all airports through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC persisting. Elevated to strong north winds are expected after 15z Fri, gusting 30-35 kts 15-21z Fri. North winds will diminish rapidly after 21z Fri. Expect winds to trend light and variable after 00z Sat, as strong surface high pressure settles over SW KS.
Ddc Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Turner