Key messages
- Significant threat for fire danger conditions continue through the
Key Messages
weekend. Red Flag Warnings are in effect today, with a fire weather watch on Saturday.
- Very little, if any, rainfall is expected through next week.
Discussion
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
An upper trough over the northern plains is poised to move southeast into the region today and this will drag a strong cold front across the area this afternoon. With little moisture to work with, this boundary will be dry with the main effect being gusty northwest winds. The main concern today will be the very dry conditions that persist across the area combined with the gusty winds. A red flag warning is in affect for the entire area this afternoon. The gusty northerly winds will continue on Saturday and along with min RH's in the low to mid 30 percent range a fire weather watch has also been issued. The dry weather will continue through the period and with min RH's in the upper 20 percent range on Sunday and Monday, at least a limited fire weather risk will continue into next week. No rain is expected through the end of next week./15/
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
VFR conditions will prevail for the most part. The exception will be with IFR/LIFR fog potential mainly in the lower Pine Belt region. A strong cold front will push southward through the entire area Friday, reaching the HBG/PIB area by around 20-21Z. Wind following the frontal passage will pick up quickly and become gusty from the NNW, SHRA activity is not expected. /EC/
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Jackson 81 50 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 85 48 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 78 49 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 90 51 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 80 50 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 70 48 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 73 48 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
Jan Watches/Warnings/Advisories
MS...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ARZ074-075.
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