Key Messages
Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
- Strong wind gusts expected to pose an enhanced threat for additional numerous downed trees and power outages over portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
- Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area on Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires.
- Dangerous marine conditions developing Friday night through the weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into next week.
Discussion
Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Monitoring the potential for fog development tonight across the area as low level moisture gradually increases and winds become light. This will favor fog, some potentially dense in some areas especially across coastal Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle where moisture will be greatest. At this time, it appears that limited coverage will preclude the need for a dense fog advisory.
A potent upper level trough will dive southeast across the Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys tonight and Friday then off of the Southeast U.S. coast by Friday night. This will drive a strong cold front across the region later this afternoon and tonight. Moisture advection in advance of this front should remain limited, but may be enough along with lift along the front to produce a few showers today along the coast. Most areas should remain dry with the frontal passage.
Another potentially high impact weather situation is likely to develop behind a strong cold front that will move through the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening. Behind the front, strong cold air advection and mixing will support the development of strong northerly wind gusts later Friday night through Saturday. This raises concerns especially across areas that experienced significant damage across portions of the western Florida Panhandle into interior portions of southwest Alabama. Latest short-term high resolution model guidance is suggesting the potential for several hours of wind gusts approaching 40 mph late Friday night into Saturday morning. The strength of these winds will have the potential to down numerous additional trees that were damaged by the extreme wind event associated with the sting jet on the west side of Hurricane Isaias. This would likely result in additional power outages in the hardest hit areas. We plan to issue a wind advisory this evening and add special wording to account for this threat.
Temperatures will drop significantly behind the front with high temperatures over the weekend only recovering into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows in the middle to upper 40s over interior areas to the lower 50s near the coast.
Upper level ridging will rebuild into the forecast area early next week with dry weather and slowly moderating temperatures anticipated through next week. /JLH
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Patchy fog is expected overnight with MVFR conditions possible. VFR condition follow for Saturday with gusty northerly winds developing Friday evening into Friday night. /13
Marine
Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Light southeasterly winds will persist through the tonight, slowly becoming more southwesterly Friday morning. Strong northerly winds are forecast for Friday night as a strong cold front passes over area waters. A Gale warning is now in effect for all coastal waters Friday night and Saturday, continuing through Saturday night well offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is likely for protected waters Saturday night as northerly winds begin to gradually ease. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the offshore waters Sunday through Monday, with Small Craft Exercise Caution in the bays and sounds. /JLH
Fire Weather
Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI FOR SATURDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS...
Areas of fog will continue to develop through sunrise with the potential for a few patches of dense fog near the coast. Any fog will quickly dissipate Friday morning.
Dry conditions are expected over most of the area on Friday except for isolated showers near the coast. A dry day is expected Saturday. Afternoon relative humidity values remain above critical levels Friday, but may see daytime relative humidity values dropping into the 30-35% range in some area. Surface winds may be a problem Friday afternoon and Saturday after a strong cold front moves across the area Friday afternoon. Transport winds will be mostly westerly to northwesterly on Friday and northerly Saturday. Dispersion index values will be fair to good on Friday and Saturday. Relative humidity values on Saturday fall to between 25-30% by Saturday afternoon which will increase the wildfire danger. /JLH
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Mobile 86 53 70 51 / 10 10 0 0 Pensacola 84 56 71 54 / 20 10 0 0 Destin 82 58 72 56 / 10 10 0 0 Evergreen 87 50 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 88 49 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 86 50 67 46 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 86 54 70 50 / 10 10 0 0
Mob Watches/Warnings/Advisories
AL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-261>266.
FL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206.
MS...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ078-079.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>636.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675.