Key messages
- Red Flag for central Louisiana and interior southeast Texas is in effect 11 AM today to 1 AM Sat. Fire danger statement for the rest of the region.
- Fire weather watch 9 AM to 9 PM Saturday for the entire CWA.
- High winds Friday and Saturday will result in Wind Advisories as well as hazardous sea conditions. Gale conditions expected from this evening through Saturday afternoon.
- Much colder and drier airmass will move in starting today. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s the rest of the weekend.
Discussion
(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Looking at RAP 500 mb analysis and satellite imagery, it's no secret where the cold front is: Stretching from southwest to northeast from Austin, TX to Memphis, TN. Winds ahead of the main frontal boundary are beginning to turn northerly. This influence is nearing the Northwest LA line and will soon spread low magnitude north winds into our northwest zones. This will start shaping up around sunrise. By mid-morning we should all feel a slight north breeze.
The primary boundary then sweeps through swiftly, arriving to the Lakes Region early morning and sweeping offshore by noon. The initial wind gusts associated with its passage will abate slightly before the faucet cranks wide open and winds increase markedly this afternoon. Unlike some frontal passages where we see a brief period of strong north winds, these winds are set to increase and stick around through much of the weekend! All thanks to enhancement between the departing upper trof and attendant postfrontal high. Areas from coastal Texas across to coastal Louisiana and northeast into cenLA will see the longest duration of the highest speeds and thus are included in a wind advisory from 1 PM today through Saturday around noon. Winds 20 to 25 with gusts to 35 MPH can be expected.
Winds will start slacking off Saturday afternoon as the upper high moves into the east central US, shutting off the northwest flow.
With northerly winds come much cooler conditions! Highs today will be reflected by your location relative to the front. Interior Texas will only warm into the 70s when the cooler air arrives, whereas cenLA and southward should warm into the 80s before it cools off.
Saturday, temps will struggle to hit the lower 70s. And with breezy conditions it'll feel cooler out. As for lows, mid 50s Saturday morning and upper 40s Sunday. How's that for a taste of fall!
These windy and dry conditions are also conducive for rapidly growing wildfires. Be it a flicked cigarette butt or wind-induced powerline spark, small flames could become an uncontrollable problem SWIFTLY under these conditions. Whether you are under a burn ban or not, DO NOT BURN. Look to your local officials for best burn ban information and if you see a fire/smoke, say something!
Take care out there and enjoy this cool off!
11/Calhoun
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Moisture is still in place near the surface and with the brief period of calm winds expected through sunrise, patchy fog may make a run at developing. Dense fog not anticipated.
Around sunrise, forcing preceding a strong cold front will turn winds to the north. Winds then steadily increase through the morning to early afternoon and will remain elevated for a prolonged period. North winds with sustained values 13 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots can be expected from this afternoon to Saturday afternoon.
Dry air ushering into the region will keep VFR ceilings in the forecast.
MC/BN
Marine
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Onshore winds will persist through the pre-dawn hours. Winds will start turning offshore after sunrise in response to a nearing strong cold front set to move into coastal waters this afternoon. Winds will rapidly increase resulting in rapid onset hazardous sea conditions. Small Craft advisory is in effect this morning until 7 PM when it transitions to a Gale Warning for sustained winds 25 to 35 knots, gusts to 40 knots and 7 to 11 foot seas. This hazardous period will continue until midday saturday when winds begin to relax. Winds will diminish slowly Saturday evening but waves will remain very elevated into Sunday.
Fire Weather
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Winds will begin turning north ahead of the approaching cold front in the coming predawn hours. Much stronger north winds will then spread southeast through the morning, reaching the coastline by roughly 10 AM and the Lower Atchafalaya by noon. Winds will then increase in the afternoon and will remain strong overnight into Saturday morning.
Much cooler conditions will arrive today with dry air and lower RH lagging behind. Areas within the red flag warning today will see RH minimums 30 to 35 percent overlapping with north winds 10 to 20 MPH and gusts to 30 MPH.
There is a fire weather watch area wide Saturday to account for RH minimums 25 to 30 percent combining with north-northeast winds 10 to 20 and gusts to 30 MPH. Winds will begin to diminish Saturday afternoon.
Lch Watches/Warnings/Advisories
LA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>030.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154- 241>243-252>254.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ029-032-033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254.
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-259-260.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ430-432-435-436.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...11