Key messages
- Strong winds will gradually decrease tonight.
- Widespread freezing temperatures expected overnight.
- Above average temperatures return for the weekend.
Update
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Strong winds continue and are only slowly starting to wane. A few areas may locally be able to hold onto advisory-level winds an hour or two past the 05z/11pm expiration currently scheduled for most of our zones, but with things starting to trend the right direction and many counties expected to drop below advisory criteria shortly, don't see forecast confidence and added value being enough to carve things up for potentially only a 1-hour extension across a few zones. Overall, winds will remain a bit breezy but will trend down overnight regionwide.
Also seeing current cloud cover on satellite overperforming latest NBM and HRRR cloud guidance as far as coverage across the South Dakota plains outside of the Black Hills, resulting in temperatures holding in the 40s in these areas. Guidance does continue to offer some support for a gradual diminishing/clearing trend as the night progresses, but confidence in how this will play out is certainly lower than it was earlier. We do not currently have good confidence that the cloud cover will hold on through sunrise in it's current footprint and prevent freezing...the combination of decreasing winds and any local decrease in clouds will allow temperatures to quickly plummet anywhere both occur (Gillette is down to 34 degF, and portions of the Black Hills are below freezing). Thus, will continue to monitor trends, but will keep the current FREEZE WARNING going as issued at this time.
Discussion
(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 1202 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Current upper air analysis shows upper trof axis draped across the Northern Plains. Attendant sfc front is pushing through the CWA with 3 hr pressure rises of 3-4 mb behind it. The pressure rises and cold air advection is supporting widespread gusty northwest winds, especially across the western SD plains. Stations across western SD have begun to report gusts of 45-55 mph, these winds should continue through this afternoon into late evening before diminishing overnight as the front exits the region. While a few gusts up to 60 mph are possible, the majority of gusts should be around 45 to 55 mph.
CAA and clearing skies will result in widespread freezing/sub- freezing temps tonight into Friday for much of the area. Freeze Warning remains in effect for most of the forecast area tonight into tomorrow morning.
Upper ridging builds over the western CONUS by Friday into this weekend. Expecting above average highs this weekend into early next week with elevated fire wx conditions. Next chances for precip arrive later next week as another trof deepens across the western US, though it's still too far out to determine any specifics about precip chances or timing.
Aviation
(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued At 306 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will continue to decrease early this morning.
Unr Watches/Warnings/Advisories
SD...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for SDZ001-002- 012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078. WY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ054>056- 058>060.
UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...Wong AVIATION...13