Tampa Bay forecast discussion

Discussion

Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure has shifted southeast and is now located between the Bahamas and Bermuda keeping an east- southeast wind flow over the Florida peninsula today. As seen on the latest water vapor imagery and sampled on the TBW 00Z upper air sounding, moisture has rebounded with PWAT values back up to around 1.9 - 2.1 inches across west central and southwest Florida. This increasing moisture will equate to afternoon scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms across the Florida peninsula today, with the highest coverage over the interior. Farther to the north and west, an area of low pressure is located over the Great Lakes region with an associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mississippi River Valley, then to southeast Texas. The area of low pressure will move northeastward over New England through Saturday morning while the cold front moves through the southeast U.S. and Florida. We can expect scattered to numerous showers and storms late Friday through Saturday evening with frontal passage.

By Saturday evening into Sunday, the cold front will be located over southern Florida, while a strong 1036 MB high pressure center sets up near Ohio. Skies and rain coverage will clear from north to south, but isolated showers and storms will still be possible over southwest Florida through Sunday evening, then low rain chances expected for most of next week. A tight pressure gradient between the remnant cold front over south Florida and the strong high pressure near Ohio will set up over the Florida peninsula producing breezy north through northeast winds for most of next week. These breezy winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters with a Small Craft Advisory needed starting Saturday morning and continuing through most of next week.

Above average temperatures expected today with daytime highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A big cool down and lower humidity is expected starting Saturday as the cold front pushes south through the Florida peninsula. Well below average temperatures expected Sunday through most of next week with daytime highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s north and low to mid 60s central and south. Dew points will dip into the 50s north of Tampa Bay, while low to mid 60s expected central and southwest Florida.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Outside of showers and storms, VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the forecast period. Scattered showers and storms expected during the afternoon hours, so will cover this with VCTS between 18-01Z. Some brief MVFR/IFR conditions for CIG and VSBY restrictions and gusty winds possible in the vicinity of storms.

Marine

Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

High pressure located between the Bahamas and Bermuda ridges over Florida and into the Gulf and will keep east through southeast winds around 10-15 knots over the eastern Gulf waters and scattered showers and storms for today. A cold front moves through the waters late Friday into Saturday producing higher rain and storm chances for all of the eastern Gulf waters. Hazardous marine conditions will set up over the eastern Gulf waters starting Saturday morning as a tight pressure gradient sets up over the region in the wake of this front producing north through northeast winds around 20-30 knots and seas up to 13 feet. This has warranted the need for a Small Craft Advisory starting Saturday morning and continuing well into the first half of next week. Conditions will be closely monitored for a possible Gale Warning as well over the weekend and into next week.

Fire Weather

Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Some showers and isolated storms possible this afternoon across west central and southwest Florida and on Saturday as a cold front pushes through the Florida peninsula. Humidity values will remain above critical levels through the forecast period. The only fire weather concern will be breezy north through northeast winds greater than 15 mph starting Saturday afternoon and continuing into next week.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops

TPA  88  76  80  64 /  40  30  60  10 
FMY  90  75  84  69 /  50  40  70  20 
GIF  91  74  82  64 /  60  20  50  10 
SRQ  88  75  82  66 /  30  40  80  10 
BKV  91  72  79  59 /  40  30  40   0 
SPG  87  76  81  65 /  30  40  70  10 

Tbw Watches/Warnings/Advisories

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn