Key messages
- Confidence is increasing for an extended period of wet and windy conditions across the Florida Keys this weekend, and possibly into early next week.
- A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required by Sunday for portions or all of the Keys coastal waters.
- Uncertainty remains very high regarding rain chances for next week.
Discussion
Issued at 510 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Satellite imagery from GOES East indicates the Florida Keys remains under an area of deep layer moisture this morning. GOES East Total Precipitable Water products estimated around 2 inches of PWAT across the Keys and South Florida. Surface dew points in the upper 70s across the Keys highlights how this feels to the average person, it is warm and muggy. Breezes have been gentle to moderate along the reef with occasional fresh gusts. Shower coverage has remained isolated to scattered given the amount of moisture and minimal inhibition. Stray thunderstorms are possible, but the absence of a synoptic scale source of lift means the convective bursts have been short lived. Today, expect muggy conditions to continue across the Keys.
Conditions are on track to change tonight. The broad high pressure system that maintained the gentle to moderate breezes is forecast to move east towards the Atlantic. Meanwhile, a cold front seen developing over the southern Plains will sweep southeast towards the Gulf. The mid latitude system associated with the front will force the high further away from the Keys and weaken it, allowing breezes to slacken to light to gentle across our waters tonight. While this occurs, the amount of moisture will persist over the Keys. Shower coverage is expected to increase while winds slacken.
The main story for the forecast continues to be the aforementioned cold front. Models still show the frontal boundary nearing the Outer Gulf waters late Saturday night. There is a high likelihood of considerable shower coverage and a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow night, so make sure to keep an eye on the radar.
Marine
Issued at 510 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the waters surrounding the Florida Keys. Gentle to moderate breezes along the reef this morning are on track to slacken as the Atlantic high weakens. Guidance suggests a strong cold front will advance into the Gulf late tonight and stall near the Keys this weekend. Breezes are on track to freshen alongside an increase in shower coverage. Exact details about where the front stalls and the duration of peak winds remains uncertain. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for some or all of our waters once the front nears the Keys.
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for both EYW and MTH. Sub VFR conditions are possible near isolated showers. Surface winds are on track to decrease late in the day, and VCSH conditions become more likely near the late afternoon. Thunderstorm chances cannot be ruled out while shower coverage increases. MVFR conditions become more likely after sunset, but confidence in timing the showers remains low.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Key West 89 79 87 77 / 30 60 60 90 Marathon 88 80 86 78 / 30 50 50 80
Key Watches/Warnings/Advisories
FL...None. GM...None.
Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP
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