Twin Cities forecast discussion

Discussion

Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Scattered showers are ongoing early this morning as a trough axis swings through. The showers are expected to end from northwest to southeast during the next few hours as the axis propagates away from the region. Clouds will clear Surface high pressure over the Rockies and northern Plains will continue to build south today. Gusty northwest winds have developed across western MN and will continue to spread southeast this morning. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for some gusts to reach 45 mph, but low level lapse rates aren't dry adiabatic due to the lack of strong cold air advection. Therefore, such gusts will be more sporadic with 35-40 mph gusts more common. Winds will gradually subside this afternoon and become light and variable this evening as high pressure builds to the central Plains.

With the ridge axis overhead, clear skies, and light winds in place this evening, temperatures should drop quickly into the 30s. Frost formation is likely by late evening area wide. During the overnight hours, the high will shift to the southern Plains and return flow will increase, particularly across central and western MN. This should halt additional frost formation, and may keep temperatures from reaching freezing in those areas. Therefore, kept the Freeze Watch going across portions of central and western MN where winds should increase to around 10 kts late tonight. Farther south and east, winds should remain decoupled for much of the night and the likelihood of subfreezing temperatures is higher. Upgraded southern MN and western WI to a Freeze Warning. The urban heat island of the Twin Cities metro should keep temperatures above 32, but light winds and high RH with temps in the mid 30s should allow frost. Upgraded to a Frost Advisory there.

With southwest winds increasing late tonight, temperatures are expected to make a rebound as early as tomorrow. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected. Breezy conditions with wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph and RH in the 30s will lead to elevated fire weather conditions, especially in areas that largely missed the soaking rain Thursday. A near repeat for Sunday, although temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 60s.

Next week will feature a ridge across much of the CONUS with troughs on the east and west coasts. Very quiet and mild weather will result and temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s each day from Tuesday onward, or 15 to 20 degrees above normal. A weak short wave passing through Wednesday will bring a low chance for rain, with additional chances coming next weekend as the western long wave trough finally begins to approach.

Aviation /12Z Tafs Through 18Z Saturday/

Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Clouds will decrease later in the morning with clear skies later in the day. Gusty northwest winds to 35 kts will decrease in the afternoon and evening, then turn southwest late tonight.

KMSP...MVFR cigs are expected to scatter out around midday with clear skies by late this afternoon. Winds will gust 30-35 kts this morning, then become light this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10G20kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts.

Mpx Watches/Warnings/Advisories

MN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker- Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Wright- Yellow Medicine. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Blue Earth- Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Isanti-Kanabec-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Mille Lacs-Nicollet- Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Anoka- Hennepin-Ramsey-Washington. WI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Borghoff