Wakefield forecast discussion

What Has Changed

SPC introduced a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) today for portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore due to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. Still watching the potential for coastal low development later this weekend into next weekend, details remain highly uncertain at this time. Gale Warnings have been issued for most of the local waters with Gale Watches for the upper rivers.

Key Messages

(isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont.

3) There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area.

Discussion

As of 315 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near record warmth and breezy today with gusty showers (isolated thunderstorms) possible along a strong cold front tonight into Saturday morning.

Early this morning, a shallow backdoor cold front that pushed south yesterday has stalled across the Carolinas and is beginning to lift back northward as a warm front. Satellite and surface observations show low stratus and patchy fog in the wake of the front due to a light onshore flow. In addition, light to moderate rain showers have developed across northern portions of the forecast area, with the highest coverage from the Northern Neck over to the MD Eastern Shore. Any low clouds and/or fog dissipates rather quickly later this morning as the front lifts north as a warm front and winds become southerly.

An expansive deep upper trough digging across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley today will drive rapid, low-level warm air advection over the Mid Atlantic. Highs will soar into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, with a few spots potentially approaching 90F (upper 70s to lower 80s at the immediate Atlantic coast and across the Eastern Shore). These values are ~15 to 20 degrees above normal and will challenge record highs, see the climate section below for more details.

Still expecting the daytime hours to remain dry area-wide. A strong cold front approaches from the NW this evening, and is forecast to cross the area late tonight into Saturday morning. CAMs still depict a thin, strongly forced line of showers and isolated storms late this evening into tonight. The overnight timing and limited instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg or less) should keep the overall severe threat low for a majority of the area. However, strong kinematics aloft will likely be able to mix down to the surface with wind gusts of 30 to 40+ mph possible as the front comes through. We will need to keep an eye on far northeastern portions of the area (MD Eastern Shore) where there may be slightly better instability and better kinematics. SPC has this area highlighted in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) with a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for areas north of I-64 for the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. The best dynamics for severe storms will likely be north of the local area.

For Saturday, the front crosses the area and moves off the coast by the morning, triggering a sharp surge of cold air advection. Daytime highs will be achieved during the early morning hours, with temperatures struggling to get out of the mid 50s by the afternoon hours. Deep mixing in the wake of the front will promote breezy NW winds, with gusts of 25 to 35+ mph inland and 40 to 45+ mph along the immediate coast. Rain chances hang on into the late morning/early afternoon hours (highest SE) as the upper shortwave does not cross the area until 18z or later.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with frost possible Sunday morning, mainly in the Piedmont.

Strong NW flow aloft in the wake of the cold front will usher in the coolest airmass of the season Saturday night into Sunday. Strong sfc high pressure builds east from the OH Valley, but there will likely be a decent pressure gradient locally, especially closer to the coast. With the surface high forecast to be 1035mb+, kept the theme from the previous forecast and undercut NBM lows by a few degrees in the northern Piedmont where decoupling is more probable closer to sunrise (lows into the mid 30s). Depending on dewpoints, at least patchy frost will be possible there. Closer to the coast, lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Mostly sunny Sunday (potentially more clouds in the SE) with highs about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Additional frost potential is possible Sunday night into Monday morning across the northern Piedmont with temperatures again dropping back into the 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...There still remains a lot of uncertainty for next week with a potential strong coastal system lingering offshore or retrograding back towards the local area.

Considerable ensemble/deterministic model spread exists heading into early to mid next week. Strong high pressure wedges down from the north, while an upper cutoff low develops off the Southeast/Mid Atlantic coast. Guidance continues to struggle with how close this coastal system remains to the shoreline, with some solutions having this low retrograding back towards the local area by mid to late week. For now, have low end (slight chance) rain chances along the immediate coast through much of next week, but this will be refined as models get a better handle on this coastal system. Breezy N to NE winds will likely persist through much of next week, with the highest gusts along the immediate coast. Near to slightly below average temperatures are currently in the forecast for next week.

Aviation /12Z Friday Through Tuesday/

As of 650 AM EDT Friday...

This morning, the cold front that settled south of the area overnight is slowly lifting to the north as a warm front. Widespread IFR to LIFR CIGs (and localized IFR VSBYs) to start off the forecast period. We should begin to see a fairly rapid improvement in flying conditions over the next few hours from SW to NE, with all sites improving to VFR by late morning or early afternoon as S-SW winds pick up (gusts 20-25 knots). VFR conditions are then expected through this evening, though a strong cold front approaching from the NW late will allow for increasing rain (and potential thunderstorm) tonight. Another round of sub-VFR CIGs (and potentially reduced VSBYs) is looking increasingly likely for the later portion of the forecast period.

Outlook: Additional rain chances, gusty NW winds, and sub-VFR CIGs are expected Saturday morning into the afternoon, especially across eastern portions of the area. sub-VFR CIGs may try to linger across the southeast Sunday into Monday as low pressure develops offshore.

Marine

As of 525 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- SW winds increase today but should largely remain sub-SCA through this afternoon.

- A strong cold front crosses the local waters tonight, bringing SCA conditions. SCAs are in effect for this surge. A brief period of gusts up to 35 kt is possible immediately behind the front.

- Gale conditions are expected from Saturday morning through at least Sunday night with the potential for Gale conditions lingering well into next week. Gale Warnings are in effect for most of the local waters with Gale Watches in effect for the upper rivers.

- Widespread coastal flooding is possible next week with the potential for several days of flooding beginning Sunday and continuing into at least mid-week.

Winds this morning have turned to the S/SE as a warm front lifts north across the local waters. Light S winds early this morning become SW and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later this morning through this afternoon. While most guidance keeps winds sub- SCA, some guidance shows portions of the middle Ches Bay and northern coastal waters potentially reaching low-end SCA conditions by late this afternoon into this evening. As such, have SCAs starting at 7 PM for these locations. Elsewhere, SCAs start at 10 PM this evening to account for N winds behind a strong cold front associated with an area of low pressure moving into northern New England. Will note that given the strength of the front (pressure rises of around 5 mb in 6 hours), winds may abruptly become N and gust to 35 kt for a couple of hours. However, given the short duration of this surge and generally low confidence in this surge, think SMWs are a better way to handle the surge.

The stronger CAA lags behind the front as a strong area of high pressure (~1038 mb) builds into the southern Plains. As the high gradually gets closer to the region, the pressure gradient tightens with N winds increasing to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35-40 kt Sat morning. The 00z model guidance (GFS/EURO/CMC) is in greater agreement that a coastal low will likely form along this front by late Sat/Sat night as a piece of vorticity becomes cutoff across the region. If a cutoff low does form aloft, the surface low underneath will likely struggle to move much through mid-late week next week given weak flow aloft underneath a large, broad upper level ridge. As such, models show this coastal low meandering through mid-late week next week (some even longer). If this occurs, the local waters would remain under a tight pressure gradient between the coastal low off the Southeast coast and strong high pressure building into interior New England. As such, a prolonged period of NE Gale conditions (winds initially become NE Sun morning) could persist well into next week with the best chance across the southern coastal waters. Elevated winds, seas, beach erosion, and tidal flooding are all possible. For now, have issued Gale Warnings for all of the local waters except the upper rivers beginning Sat morning and continuing through Sun night. However, extensions of the Gale Warnings are likely (especially across the southern waters) into midweek. For now, have limited the Gale Warning to six forecast periods (per collaboration with neighboring offices) and will likely keep extending by one or two forecast periods at a time (if confidence allows) with each major forecast update. Additionally, have Gale Watches for the upper rivers from Sat evening through Sat night given lower confidence and a later time of arrival for the potential Gale conditions.

Confidence is lower in the wave/sea forecast than the winds. However, currently have seas building to 8-12 ft north and 9-13 ft south (12-15+ ft offshore) by Sat night into Sun. Meanwhile, waves build to 4-8 ft across the Ches Bay (highest across the lower Ches Bay). Will note that if a period of prolonged NE winds at Gale conditions does develop and persist for several days, seas could be higher than currently forecast. Given the building seas, High Surf Advisories will likely be needed along at least the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach and potentially across the Eastern Shore as well. However, confidence in the start time for 8+ ft nearshore waves is low before Sat night (fourth period). As such, have opted to hold off on High Surf Advisories for this update.

COASTAL FLOODING...

Given the prolonged period of strong NE winds next week, widespread coastal flooding is possible. Tidal anomalies begin to increase Saturday with mainly nuisance flooding possible along the lower Ches Bay. By Sunday, winds become NE, resulting in the potential for widespread minor flooding with localized moderate flooding possible at a few locations. The current tidal forecast only goes through Monday, however, widespread minor to moderate flooding is possible Monday and will continue to be possible into at least the middle of next week. Will note that moderate to major flooding is possible, particularly if NE winds trend strong and/or look to linger several days. Coastal communities should be aware of the potential for multiple days of coastal flooding with each high tide next week and stay tuned as the forecast gets refined and details get ironed out.

Climate

- Record High Temperatures Fri 10/16:

- RIC: 90 (1897) (latest in season 90F on record) - ORF: 87 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/14/2026) - SBY: 85 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939) - ECG: 86 (2008) (latest in season 90F on record 10/10/1939)

Akq Watches/Warnings/Advisories

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ631-632-634-656-658. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632- 634-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633- 639. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ639. Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650.

DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...RMM CLIMATE...LKB