Key messages
- 1) Temperatures near record highs again today.
- 2) Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this
What Has Changed
As of 6 AM EDT... The Aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
As of 3 AM EDT... The Gale Watch over all waters has been upgraded to a Gale Warning.
Key Messages
weekend.
Discussion
KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures near record highs again today.
One last day of warm weather today with deep SW flow over the area as high pressure shifts farther offshore. Temps will not be quite as high as yesterday, but highs in the mid/upr 80s will still come close to daily records. Please see the Climate section below for more info.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend.
A strong cold front is still slated to move through the area tonight into early Sat, ushering in the coolest air of autumn thus far. Guidance continues to differ on how widespread any rain will be, with PoPs following the fropa remaining in the 30-60% range daytime Saturday with any rainfall expected to be under a quarter of an inch.
Deep northerly flow will develop as system shifts farther off the coast through Sat aftn. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 this evening will drop through Sat down into the 40s by late Sat. This drying trend will continue into Sat night with gusty northerly winds allowing dewpoints to bottom out early Sun in the 30s to around 40 close to the coast. Plenty of CAA will bring temps down quite a few degrees below normal Sat into Sun. Temps Sat aftn will resemble overnight temps just 12 hrs before, and the stiff northerly winds will make it feel even cooler. Expect overnight lows Sat night in the low/mid 40s. Overall, fall-like weather will arrive Sat with a gradual warming through early next week.
Aviation /10Z Friday Through Tuesday/
High confidence in VFR conditions continuing. Some ground fog may impact terminals temporarily this morning, but light winds should keep any MVFR BR restrictions brief. SW winds increase this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. CIGs lower late tonight with a wind shift between 08Z and 11Z behind the cold front.
Showers are likely to develop around 12Z Saturday
Extended Outlook... Northerly winds could gust over 30 knots on Saturday. High confidence in MVFR/IFR cigs following the cold front with scattered showers. Dry air should lead to MVFR/VFR conditions later in the day with steadily improving conditions overnight. A coastal low to our east will maintain northeasterly flow, but should be far enough away to prevent sub-VFR conditions from materializing.
Marine
Sub-SCA conditions continue through this evening with sfc high pressure offshore. A strong cold front moves through very early Sat morning, allowing winds to quickly veer from SW to the N, gradually veering even more to the NNE through the day Saturday into Sunday. Seas will ramp up in increasing winds ahead of the front and will peak late Sun. The Gale Watch over all waters has been upgraded to a Gale Warning, starting midday Sat and continuing through late Sun night, and will be extended as needed in future updates. Confidence is high for 35-40 kt gusts over the 0-20 NM coastal waters, and for 40-45 kt gusts over the 20-60 NM waters. There is still plenty of uncertainty over potential low pressure development offshore this weekend, but regardless, a strong pressure gradient will persist through at least early next week over the local waters between strong high pressure inland and low pressure well offshore.
Climate
Forecast/record highs for Friday, October 16: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 86F (87F in 2021, 2018, and 1975) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 82F (88F in 1990) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 88F (91F in 2021) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 88F (92F in 1925)
Ilm Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256-280-284.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS/21 KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...MAS/21 MARINE...MAS