Key messages
- Warm and dry conditions through the weekend, with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
- Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Wednesday through Thursday.
Short Term /Through Sunday Night/
The upper-level ridge centered over the western CONUS will keep temperatures warmer than normal today with clear skies. Dry surface layer conditions with weak winds will contribute to vast temperature differences from early morning lows, aided by radiational cooling, to peak heating during the afternoon. On Saturday, a weak upper-level shortwave trough will move inland across the Pacific Northwest and southern Canadian provinces. This will erode the western periphery of the ridge, combining with a weak upper-level low moving north out of Baja California to put the area in weak southwesterly flow aloft. While moisture remains sparse with this system, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly to generate localized afternoon breezes. Sunday will see this weak southwesterly flow aloft continuing.
Long Term /Monday Through Friday/
Temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Monday, however the pattern change will be actively underway. Through the rest of the week, a high amplitude trough will become a cut off low in southern California and linger in the Great Basin. As the trough builds along the West Coast Monday evening, increasing clouds and breezy conditions in SE Oregon are expected. Temperatures will cool off Tuesday as a front move through, cooling temperatures down to near-normal; low-mid 60s for the afternoon high in lower elevations, low 50s for mountain valleys. The cloud cover and increasing chance of precipitation Tuesday evening through Thursday evening could help to moderate temperatures further, however precipitation confidence at this time is low.
Aviation /06Z Friday Through Saturday/
Issued 1154 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning near KBNO and KMYL tomorrow. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions from valley fog near KBKE-KBNO again tonight. Surface winds: E-SE 5-10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SE-SW 10-20 kt.
KBOI...VFR. Surface winds SE 5-15 kt.
Weekend Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies on Sat/Sun. Areas of smoke from prescribed burns. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt mainly east of KBOI on Saturday, then S-SE 5-10 kt Sunday.
Boi Watches/Warnings/Advisories
ID...None.
OR...None.
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SHORT TERM...CH LONG TERM....CH AVIATION.....CH