Elko forecast discussion

Discussion

(Today through Thursday)

Nevada will be located between a weak trough to the south, and a ridge of high pressure strengthening to the north. The upper levels will still remain dry from the overlying ridge, resulting in minimal cloud cover for the next few days. Unseasonably warm weather will persist through at least the weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s as we move into the weekend. Low temperatures are currently expected to stay in the low 30s tonight and are expected to increase up to the upper 30s to lower 40s as we get to Sunday before the weather pattern shifts.

After Monday, we are still expecting a polar jet to push through, bringing a very deep low, colder temperatures, and precipitation. Long range model guidance is showing a deep low moving off the Pacific Ocean across portions of AZ, CA, and southern NV, which will extend a vorticity maxima line across the state with the passage. The different models are still struggling with timing, but there is an overall trend of moving it later into the forecast period. The GFS currently has the primary passage occurring for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame, while the ECMWF is looking more mid-day Thursday into Friday. Precipitation types are still a question, with the biggest concerns being around the surface. As of right now, the less whimsical option appears more likely, in the surface lows will stay above freezing until after the FROPA and the precipitation has passed. This means widespread rain is in the forecast with potential for snow mostly in the higher elevations. This does not mean that we wont see any snow in the valleys, but the likelihood of just rain is still seeming higher. As we push into this event, the highs are supposed to be in the upper 50s/ low 60s pre-frontal, and in the mid 40s/ low 50s post-frontal. The lows are expected to follow the pattern of upper 30s/ low 40s pre-frontal, and in the mid 30s post-frontal.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for a relatively clear and pleasant weekend. Medium confidence in the polar jet bringing precipitation and cold temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. Low confidence in precipitation type and timing of the polar jet.

Aviation

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for at least the next 24 hours.

Fire Weather

High temperatures each afternoon today through Monday will be around five degrees above normal for this time of year. A cooling trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, maximum temperatures will be below seasonal values. The next storm system will impact the Silver State Tuesday through Thursday, resulting in a chance of valley rain and mountain snow.

Lkn Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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