Key messages
- Afternoon highs gradually warm over the next several days.
- Dry conditions continue through the weekend.
- Wetter and cooler conditions return by mid-week next week.
Discussion
Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026
High pressure overhead continues to mean warming temperatures and dry conditions across our coverage area. While morning temperatures will generally be in the 30s for the next few mornings, highs return to the 60s each afternoon, pushing towards near 70 degrees around the Burley area by Saturday afternoon, with temperatures just a couple of degrees cooler on Sunday. Overall, it should be a very pleasant end of the week/weekend for anyone with outdoor plans or if you are just looking forward to having the windows open!
An upper level low drops south along the West Coast early next week and will eventually bring us cooler temperatures and wetter conditions. Now, WHEN the precipitation actually arrives is a bit of a toss up at this point. The ECMWF brings some precipitation chances from this low to our area as early as Tuesday morning and then more on Thursday/Friday. The GFS does bring some light precipitation on Tuesday, but it really holds off on the main push of precipitation until almost Friday. We'll see how far south this low actually drops and how quickly it moves eastward and how models continue to change over the next few days. At this point, the NBM brings temperatures back down to the 50s as early as Tuesday and 30 to 40 percent precipitation chances to most of our area almost every day next week after Monday.
Aviation /06Z Tafs Through 06Z Saturday/
Issued at 910 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Clear skies and light winds are expected the next 24 hours.
Fire Weather
Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Warming temperatures and very dry conditions will continue through at least the weekend thanks to high pressure overhead. Highs will warm into at least the 60s if not pushing towards 70 degrees in the lower elevations, especially in the eastern Magic Valley. Today and tomorrow look to be the driest days as far as min RHs go, around 12 to 20 percent in the Central Mountains and part of FWZ 422. Elsewhere, min RHs will range from 25 to 35 percent. Look for another system to bring cooler, wetter conditions back to the area next week.
Pih Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
DISCUSSION...AMM AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...AMM