Key messages
- Ridge over the region will bring warming temperatures, peaking on Saturday.
- A cold front passage late on Saturday will drop temperatures back closer to normal for next week.
- Dry conditions are expected through the weekend and into next week.
Discussion
High pressure moving out of eastern Montana this morning with upper ridge building into the northern Rockies. With the development of a chinook arch and lee trough, temperatures will be warming over the next few days. Pressure gradient between the high and the trough could bring winds up close to Lake Wind Criteria briefly midday, but will be fairly marginal and short lived.
Shortwave ejecting from the eastern Pacific trough will flatten out the ridge over the weekend, for a drop in temperatures on Sunday behind a cold front.
Upper flow will turn increasingly southeast early next week with an upper low digging south off the west coast. By midweek flow will split with the upper low cutting off from the Canadian northern near zonal flow. Next chance for precipitation appears to be late next week as the closed low moves onshore and begins to open up. This will allow it to phase with a northern stream trough and pull Pacific moisture northward through the Great Basin.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
- There is high confidence in conditions remaining largely benign throughout the forecast period.
- No deviations from the NBM.
Aviation
VFR. Generally clear skies expected through the morning with high pressure over the region. Low clouds in western North Dakota will continue moving eastward, but could see a little valley fog, mainly at KOLF or KSDY around 11z to 15z. High clouds will spread across the region through the day.
Ggw Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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