Key Messages
Issued at 344 AM AST Fri Oct 16 2026
- Limited Flooding Threat Brief passing showers are expected today and in the upcoming days, especially across western Puerto Rico today and to the northwestern on Saturday into Sunday.
- Lightning Threat: Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, posing a localized lightning threat, particularly over western to northwestern Puerto Rico.
- Heat threat: Warm and humid conditions will persist, with a limited heat threat possible across urban and coastal areas.
- A moderate risk of rip current is forecast from today into Monday of the next workweek. On Tuesday, a NNW long- period swell reaches the local waters increasing the risk of rip currents to high.
Short Term(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM AST Fri Oct 16 2026
Variable weather conditions prevailed overnight into the early morning hours across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Limited but frequent passing showers streamed across the local Atlantic waters, with some reaching eastern coastal sections of Puerto Rico. However, shower activity remained generally light and brief, resulting in limited rainfall accumulations across the affected areas. Elsewhere, mainly fair weather conditions prevailed with periods of cloudiness. According to unofficial weather stations, overnight temperatures remained near seasonal values across the local islands.
Variable weather conditions are expected to continue across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands the rest of the morning. At the surface, a high-pressure system over the western Atlantic, extending into the central Atlantic, will maintain easterly winds across the region. This wind flow will continue to bring patches of low-level moisture from the Atlantic waters into the local islands. According to satellite-derived data, precipitable water values are ranging between 1.4 and 1.6 inches, supporting passing showers across the local waters and eastern sections of Puerto Rico during the morning hours. As the day progresses, a drier air mass will move across the region, limiting shower activity during the afternoon. In addition, a mid-to-upper-level ridge will continue to promote stable atmospheric conditions across the local islands. The latest model guidance suggests relatively warm mid- level temperatures between -4C and -3C, approaching two standard deviations above seasonal values. This warming, combined with subsidence associated with the ridge extending from 700 mb to 250 mb, will maintain a relatively stable atmospheric column, limiting the vertical development of showers. Similar conditions are expected on Saturday and Sunday, with limited shower activity and afternoon convection mainly driven by daytime heating and local effects.
From Saturday into Monday, a slight change in the surface wind pattern is expected as winds become more east-southeasterly, allowing additional patches of low-level moisture to move across the region. This gradual increase in moisture may support a slight increase in shower activity, particularly by Sunday. Meanwhile, easterly winds will gradually weaken on Sunday, allowing local effects and sea breeze convergence to play a more significant role in afternoon convection. Under this pattern, passing showers will remain possible across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight and morning hours. During the afternoon, daytime heating combined with available moisture and local effects will favor shower development across interior and northwestern Puerto Rico. As winds gradually weaken, slower-moving showers may result in localized rainfall accumulations, particularly where convection persists. However, the persistence of relatively warm mid-level temperatures and stable conditions aloft will continue to limit widespread deep convection and thunderstorm development.
Long Term(Monday Through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM AST Fri Oct 16 2026
A weak mid-level ridge will shift westward by Sunday as a deep mid- to-upper-level low develops over the central North Atlantic. Marginally unstable conditions will prevail through early next week, with convection primarily driven by diurnal heating and local effects. Below-normal mid-level moisture and relatively weak lapse rates should limit convective coverage and intensity. By midweek, uncertainty increases as models suggest possible low-pressure development over the western Caribbean, potentially influencing regional moisture and steering flow. However, NHC currently does not anticipate tropical cyclone formation, and confidence remains low in any substantial moisture increase or organized rainfall event.
Limited excessive rainfall and lightning risks will decrease through the weekend and remain relatively low early next week, with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across interior and western Puerto Rico. Some increase in convective activity remains possible by midweek, although this will depend on moisture availability and the evolving synoptic pattern. A limited heat risk will persist across the islands, particularly during the late morning and early afternoon before convective development. All three hazard risks are expected to remain limited throughout the period.
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 344 AM AST Fri Oct 16 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across most TAF sites through the forecast period, with occasional VCSH affecting eastern TAF sites. E winds will continue through the day. Afternoon SHRA and isolated TSRA are expected to develop over the interior and western mountainous areas of PR, potentially resulting in brief reductions in VIS and CIGs, with localized MVFR conditions possible. Some VCTS will be possible after 16/18Z, mainly TJBQ & TJPS. Winds will gradually diminish after 16/23Z, becoming light overnight.
Marine
Issued at 344 AM AST Fri Oct 16 2026
Predominantly tranquil conditions will persist across the local waters for the rest of the week. A surface high pressure moving east across the northwestern Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate E winds, shifting to ESE by Saturday as the high pressure moves into the central Atlantic. A small long-period NNE swell approaching the Atlantic waters will linger into the weekend. By early next week an additional NNW swell will reach the Atlantic waters as a distant surface low pressure moves east into the western Atlantic. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce locally hazardous conditions each afternoon, particularly across the western and coastal waters of Puerto Rico.
Beach Forecast
Issued at 344 AM AST Fri Oct 16 2026
A moderate risk for rip currents will persist until Monday predominantly affecting north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Conditions will shift into early next week as a NNW long-period swell reaches the local waters, builds seas and increases the likelihood of life-threatning rip currents along the southwestern, western, northern, and northeastern facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms throughout the forecast period that may affect beachgoers, especially each afternoon with a focus on western Puerto Rico. The heat risk remains limited for the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The associated heat stress may affect individuals that are extremely sensitive to heat particularly during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Sju Watches/Warnings/Advisories
PR...None. VI...None. AM...None.
SHORT TERM, KEY MESSAGES & AVIATION...LIS LONG TERM....ICP MARINE & BEACH FORECAST...RVT/KML