Key Messages
Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
- A cold front this morning will bring strong north winds, cooler temperatures and drier conditions to South Texas.
- Gale Warning is in effect this morning through early Saturday Afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed through late Saturday afternoon and evening.
- A Wind Advisory is in effect this morning through tonight.
- Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Sunday morning.
- Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Saturday.
- Elevated fire weather concerns behind the cold front this afternoon, mainly across the Brush Country.
- Low to medium rain chances across South Texas this morning associated with the cold front.
Discussion
Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
A strong cold front can be seen via satellite and radar moving south to southeast across the Hill Country. The cold front is expected to move through S TX later this morning, finally bringing some relief from the heat. The cooler and drier conditions will be more noticeable tonight. A pleasant weekend is in store for S TX with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to low 60s. Temperatures begin to warm back up early next week.
Rain chances associated with the cold front will be highest across the Rio Grande Plains with up to 55% chance and across the gulf waters with up to 70% across the offshore waters. The Brush Country, Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads have a 15-30% chance of mainly showers. A few thunderstorms will be possible. The rain is expected to end from northwest to southeast this afternoon.
Strong north winds behind the cold front will be a concern with gusts up to 35-40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect across S TX starting this morning. Winds are expected to decrease below advisory levels initially across the western areas this afternoon, then across the eastern areas tonight. The islands are expected to remain at advisory levels through Saturday morning.
Gale conditions are expected later this morning as the cold front pushes offshore, and will likely continue through Saturday morning to early Saturday afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 8-13 feet. Winds begin to relax Saturday afternoon and evening, but will remain at advisory levels through Saturday evening.
Another concern will be coastal flooding. The strong northerly winds and large seas across the gulf waters and swell periods of 8-9 seconds will likely lead to minor coastal flooding during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect this afternoon through Sunday morning. In addition, the long period swells will be conducive for a moderate rip current risk today through Saturday. The north winds along the shore tend to negate the rip current risk, but given the long period swells and large seas, should lead to a moderate risk.
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF cycle. A strong cold front is expected to move into the COT and VCT TAF sites between 10-12Z, and the LRD, ALI and CRP sites between 12-14Z, bringing a brief period of MVFR CIGs/VSBYs and a low chance of showers. In addition, winds will go from light and variable to a strong north wind as the cold front moves southward across the region. Winds are expected to build to 20-30 knots with gusts around 35-40 knots, especially ALI and CRP. Winds are expected to gradually diminish through Friday evening.
Marine
Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
A strong cold front will move across the coastal waters later this morning, shifting winds to the north-northeast and increasing to near gale force (BF 7) with frequent gusts to gale (BF 8). A Gale Warning is in effect this morning through early Saturday afternoon. Winds will relax from nearshore to offshore through Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas will remain at advisory levels through Saturday evening. A moderate northeast breeze will develop by Sunday. There is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the nearshore waters and up to a 70% chance across the offshore waters through the morning hours. Rain chances will end from west to east through this afternoon and evening.
Fire Weather
Issued at 133 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
A strong cold front this morning will bring a strong northerly wind and drier conditions to South Texas through this afternoon. There may be a brief window this afternoon when RH values drop to around 25% across the Brush Country while winds are still strong, leading to elevated fire weather conditions. Due to a low ERC and moisture is normal to above normal, Red Flag Conditions are not anticipated. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the Brush Country for this afternoon from 2 PM through 8 PM for elevated fire weather conditions. RH values begin to increase this evening decreasing the threat. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend along with winds becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated this weekend.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops
Corpus Christi 82 57 73 55 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 79 53 73 50 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 79 56 72 52 / 60 0 0 0 Alice 81 55 72 52 / 20 0 0 0 Rockport 84 59 75 59 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 77 53 72 50 / 30 0 0 0 Kingsville 82 55 72 53 / 30 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 61 73 62 / 30 0 0 0
Crp Watches/Warnings/Advisories
TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239-240.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ232>234-241>247-342>344-346-347.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ345-442-443-447.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443-447.
GM...Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-237.
Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...NP/92